Bitcoin technical analysis trading strategies


#1

Hello to everyone from The Pub community!! :heart:

This will be a trading topic, where i will be giving updates on Bitcoin and several different alt coins from the cryptocurrency market as well as teaching you have to use technical analysis tools.

I have an enormous passion for trading, and I LOVE teaching. I know here in the pub many people would like to learn how to trade, even if it’s so they can just increase their alt coin stack, but they don’t know how to trade, or lack the confidence to open a trade with fear of losing money. With this thread I will be happy to help you all out, answer any questions you have in regards to trading, investing or technical analysis, and provide video lessons so you can learn how to use these trading tools correctly, and in time become a profitable and successful trader!
I have been trading for many years and this is my full time job, this teaching/help section i’m doing in my spare time to help you out. It honestly makes me very happy to know people have made money off my TA, and are learning at the same time.

So, my three aims for this thread are;

  • 1.Technical analysis. How i will be trading said coin each day using TA.
  • 2.Teach you how to use said technical analysis tools.
  • 3.Anwer any questions, and offer help.

Many people on the internet charge for this service, but i’m more than happy to help for free. I want to give back and help this community grow stronger together!

Here is a ‘trailer’ sort of video to show what my lessons will cover.

https://twitter.com/DanielJordan4K


#2

Here is my first lesson video. I go over how to identify the bottom and top of a chart. I use examples from the recent ICX, VET and ONT moves. This skill is something you really have to train over time, the more you see these patterns, the more you will learn. RSI, candle sticks, MACD and divergences are the key.

As always, if you have any questions let me know, very happy to help.


#3

I’m honestly still keeping my eye on our triangle and the 0.618 fib retracement level here on Bitcoin. There is sooooo much resistance at $7500, will be massive if the bulls break it. 0.618 fib level, rising wedge, horizontal support, MACD histogram downtick, triangle downwards resistance, noticeable big bear volume sell off. With all that in mind, bulls really don´t want to give up here.


#4

Bitcoin has had its first healthy move up in a very long time. As you can see in our other previous rallies of 2018, each rally has had several $1000 daily candles. Now we see a slow and steady climb up which more sustainable, continuously making higher lows and with each dip getting bought up quickly. The bulls are now approaching massive resistance, which I will go through below.

  1. 0.618 fib level.
    On our last two rallies, this is the Fibonacci retracement has been rejected from. We are now approaching this level again, a key resistance to key an eye on.

  2. Horizontal resistance.
    The region of $7500 on our last 2 rallies has had a lot of consolidation on both the move up and down, so we will see a horizontal resistance here.

  3. 200 EMA
    The 200EMA is sitting on $7550 at the moment on the daily, which is going to add to the resistance.

  4. Triangle downwards resistance line
    This is a valid resistance that has been playing out for 9 months now.

  5. Rising wedge
    On the 4h you can clearly see BTC in a rising wedge , which is a bearish pattern

  6. 5th Elliott Wave
    I have done an Elliott Wave count, and using the Fibonacci extension, the end of wave 5 has a valid target of $7500, before we get our correction.

  7. Volume is not great.
    For a real reversal I would have liked to see more volume, but I believe this low volume is because of indecision. Are we in disbelief?

If we break though this trend line, we will ideally see a massive spike in volume.

If the bulls come together and break through the resistances, I believe we will have entered into a real reversal attempt here, if we cannot this was just another dead cat bounce. From a TA perspective I believe it will break down, but my heart is saying we are going to break through resistance, and at least short term we are going to see a nice move upwards. If we break down and hold $6,000 support again, from the triangle we should see a decision mid-September to start of November time.

So to conclude, Bitcoin from a technical analysis perspective is looking very bearish and this is a great opportunity to go short. I will be laddering shorts from $7500 as from my trading plan I cannot yet this go, but I do have a strong feeling we will be breaking through this level. I would be very happy to see a 2019 bull market!


#5

I moved my trailing stops up too quickly and got caught at $7,338.


#6

Nice one Dan, enjoyed reading that. Especially both outcomes, we could very well push through resistance…but to do that we are going to need alot of bulls on board and some converted bears. With potential positive news on big events sometime this month, hopefully that can act as some kind of aid in helping us break it.

But if we don’t and retest $6k support then it’s not the end of the world, we still have a long road ahead of us. I’m confident that we’ll get a decent bull run again, just i think it’ll take longer than we all might be hoping/expecting for.

Me personally i’m keeping a close on eye on it all of course. Getting ready to exit my positions if i don’t like what i’m seeing. I am not going to be a holder for the sake of holding if i can see us taking a dive in the market for a period of time whilst things recover once more.

But i guess we’ll just have to see how this all plays out :grimacing:


#7

Yes quite regularly in this market you will get stopped out several times if you have your stop losses to tight. I use to have tight stops, but now i give myself more leeway(but ofc more risk) by placing stops below last 4hr low. Too many times in the past i got stopped out of a trade, only for it to move up as i expected.

I agree, and would personally love to see lower supports tested, 5k and possibly 3k. But I hope to see resistance go down on this move up, even if we then range between 8.5 and 7.5 for a month. Time to see some bull action!
With that said though I will be shorting, as i have to go by my trading plan and not what i want!


#8

If you are going short @7500 where are you setting your buy orders(price targets)? Are you setting a buy stop at a certain price level after you go short @7500 just in case?

I thought you went short @ 6877 a couple weeks ago when you called bear flag on the daily. When did you get back into the market to go short @7500? Did you get stopped out on this short? (buy stop)

You also had your short sell target @7400 a few days after you said you were shorting @6877. When and why did you change this target?

Are you actually sticking to your trading plan this time or will you be saying you’re laddering shorts @ 7600+ in a few more days?

Ill agree the setup looks bearish but id rather wait for directional confirmation from the market before i go shorting here expecting a drop to below sub 5k as you have been predicting for over a month now. If you think the market is going to tank from here its probably better to keep a wide trailing stop than be left in the dust if the market doesn’t confirm your bearish bias. Expect the unexpected.

If you’re going to post predictions and trade set ups that you yourself are not following at least explain why you changed your position. We learn more from being wrong than we do from being right.


#9

You’re right, if i’m going to do this properly i need to be explaining my exits from a trade. I have a habit of posting setups, and then not replying when i have closed that position, as i’m already concentrating on the next trade. I will start to post follow ups to my open trades, as to why and where i have closed. Noted :slight_smile:

I’m laddering in my shorts starting at $7500 every $50 with stops set at $7873. Risk to reward is 4.08.

I rememebr that trade well, sorry for not updating. I shorted $6877 as it was the 0.382 fib level resistance, which i closed at the 0.236 fib support for 5% profit. Again, in the future i will be making sure to update all my trades in this thread, win or lose, so everyone will see and understand how my trade went.

100% I will always stick to my trading plan, laddering in my shorts from $7500 up to $7800.

I think waiting for a break of $8500 or $5750 is an excellent idea for anyone unsure in this market.

Also for the last 2 weeks I have been trading more on the stock market rather than crypto, particularly SQ, AMZN and AAPL.

So yes i’m playing this resistance more aggressively than normal, with all the resistance lined up here it’s almost too perfect of a short opportunity. Honestly though my heart is telling me to open a long. I would also love to see $8500 be smahed though and for us to start a new bull market.


#10

Video i made yesterday where i go over the massive resistance Bitcoin is facing.

It’s very important to understand these concepts, so if you have any questions at all let me know amigos! :slight_smile:


#11

good video :+1:

Your daily chart is missing a big red candle :smile: What you make of current action dano? Definitely cooled off the 4hr rsi lol. Im watching for a break of the the channel its been in for awhile now. Coincides with the 6800 support/resistance zone and cloud support on 4hr ichimoku. Lots of support here, im thinking we get a bounce.

Still in my long position from 6k with a stop @6750. I should have sold due to 4hr rsi bearish divergence yesterday but i didnt.(or moved my stop in tighter) Would have been a nice swing to pick up more btc if we bounce off support here. Live and learn. Next time :smile:


#12

Thank you mate! :slight_smile:

^ This is how I see Bitcoin playing out now, an ABC corrective pattern. If it does play out how I expect the channel support you show will break. The bulls are REALLY going to want to hold $6784, so i would like to see that hold, but if it doesn’t I will be looking at $6622.


#13

Update on the above acb correction. WOW what a night for Bitcoin, breaking the 3 bullish supports i mentioned and closing below the 0.618 fibonacci retracement is a very bearish correction, we did pause for the B wave up, but it was very small and not visable on higher timeframes. I will be following this very closely today as bitcoin remains oversold on the 1-6hr timeframes, currently sitting at $6420. Current stace is bearish and i am expecting a move down to retest $6,000 now.


#14

Love your TA man, but your Elliot waves are an ongoing joke for me. :joy:

All jokes aside, what’s your prediction on the bounce at $6k? Minor dead cat then resume downward to $5k, or do we get a big enough bounce to squeeze some of these shorts that are piling on?


#15

lol leave my waves alone :ocean:

With $6k having such a big support, I will be placing buys with stops below $5700. RR is great with laddered buys of that region with stops at $5700. Then shorts ready for a break of $5700, as if that happens i see us reaching $5k very fast.

So opening a long at 6k is a good trade RR wise, as i forsee the above picture playing out over the next month or so, before we get a real break of the triangle in mid September time(or late November max),which nicely coincides, a coincidence or not, with the ETF.


#16

New video where i go over our most recent rally, which had a top of $7440. Well done to everyone who had an open short, or that caught the bottom on the 0.786 fib.

IF you’re not in a positing right now, for me this is a no trade zone. Never force trades just to be trading. You really need to wait for the setup to come to you, and have enough data to make a nice technical analysis setup. I’m waiting for more data and will update tomorrow with how i would play Bitcoin after this big drop. Tonight I will be trading stocks.

As always any questions just ask!!


#17

@Danosaurs hey how long have you been trading crypto for? Thanks for all your explanations. You’re a solid teacher.


#18

I have been trading in other markets for around 8 years, but only entered the Crypto space at the start of this year. I can remember well when i first entered this market i made several mistakes trying to play it how i would have stocks, and also making some bad investment decisions such as icx, which at the time appeared good. Over the last 6 months I have really learnt so much about the Crypto market. I cannot trade the same way in this market as i would in stocks, this market is a lot more unforgiving and much more volatile, which i now love(at the start i didn’t). I had to dedicate a lot of time to learning how this market works, but it definitely pays off. i’m still working hard everyday here though, or i will get left behind.

Thank you mate! Honestly i’m just trying my best to help others learn this market, i really enjoy knowing my ta works and people can learn from it. Youtube is a great tool for teaching/learning a great deal of subjects!

As many people in this space, i started off with some bad crypto trades, but with hard work and dedication i turned it around, so now i’m trying to give back with what i have learnt so others don’t make the same mistakes. Though mistakes are the best learning tool, after i made a few i learnt my lessons quickly! :smile:


#19

Trading crypto is tough business. I started trading stocks early 2017 and made some decent gains. The thing that I liked about stocks as a n00b is that the market wasn’t always trading so I could take more time to plan set ups. Crypto trading keeps me a little more anxious :grimacing:. I do think the opportunity for making insane gains on wild volatility in crypto will continue to attract traders and keep the market very much alive.:+1:


#20

Yeah 24 hour market has its pros and cons. I like a market that closes so you can have some ‘down time’. With this 24/7 market it’s hard to stop thinking about it as you can always open up Coinbase and see a new price. It’s nice for a trading junkie though lol. Maybe in 5/10 years time if Bitcoin really grows, the volatility should drop too, It’s crazy a 1 billion order can effect price so much here.