Bitcoin to CRASH between 4th and 15th of January 2018?!

As much as I am super bullish on Bitcoin and crypto in general in the long term, I do also have short term fears about the market going into 2018. Here is why:

  1. Bitcoin is up more than 1000% since start of January this year so far. As we have seen multiple times this year already, such gains do not come without corrections, FUD and drama. If Bitcoin goes to around 10k+ around end of this year, chances are we are in for another technical correction.

  2. I believe going into Christmas and holiday period, many people want to get out of the market to relax more and forget about the extreme volatility and random panick attacks that come with investing in crypto.

  3. CME Group futures is planned to go live 2nd week of December. This represents professional investors which have experience in volatile markets and know more about market psychology than any of us. If these people start shorting Bitcoin in late Dec / early Jan, what will happen…?

  4. Just looking at the Bitcoin/USD chart the last 3 years, you will see that Bitcoin has corrected every year between 4th and 15th of January. History tends to repeat itself, doesn’t it? You can have a look below at some screenshots I just made:



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Would make sense. Everyone dumping in to fiat to pay back the credit card companies after x-mas. Thanks Jesus :cry:

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Great time to put that Christmas bonus into BTC!

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Agree, or at least a portion of it. :wink:

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An interesting perspective it would be useful to know how long it took for the price to recover after the correction each year.

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Bitcoin tends to recover very fast if you look at the charts the last 2 years and especially this year. So I am not worried if you are a HODLer with long term perspective. If you are looking to swing trade the market however, this could be a golden opportunity.

I think that if we are in for a correction again around this time, something tells me it can be in the 40-50% range due to what I mentioned above.

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Even the professional investors will struggle early in the game. This crypto world isn’t the same as the stock market even tho it is visualized the same

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@cryptovkng much as I love bitcoin, I “feel” we need some sort of correction and we can always rely on JamieD or some other person.

It’s just been too much too fast.

I wish I could dial in a stop loss on my bitcoin in my pension fund but I can’t. So I got all out Monday at $8000 or there abouts.

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I got in last week thanks to your tip put £4000 in and am up £1000 already! Why did you take yours out?

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A nice analysis for sure, but I have found that one thing TA can not do is take into account FUD, new protocol implementations, futures, hacking, etc.

I think we are going to surpass $9,000 easily, and with the introduction of CME futures, this will have a significant impact on the market, which could go either way.

I also think that, consideration needs to be given to an ever-growing problem of the massive impact some exchanges have on BTC prices. Tether being ‘hacked’ produced a pullback for BTC, and depending on opinion, if we look at the ‘potential’ link between BitFinex (biggest exchange and volume for BTC) and Tether being owned by the same ‘people’, and the issues that exist behind them both, could cause another dip in price for BTC. Or maybe a rise, depending if ‘more’ tether is ‘made’.

Playing devils advocate, if we had a nice rise in price, exceeding RSI, MA and MACD, futures and margin trading happening to high levels, alongside a correction which should come after a long term price hike, exacerbated by BitFinex and Tether, we could see a few scenarios playing out.

But I will remain conservative in my opinion so as to avoid FUD.

Either way; we have just had a correction but to some it might not seem that way due to the fluctuation in price caused by the BCH interaction, thus, not seeming that we really hit a low which was sustained; because we bounced back very quickly.

Should be interesting…

If in doubt, HODL…or buy futures.

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The futures/options contracts are all settled in USD. I do not see how this will cause significant downward pressure on BTC price. The more likely scenario, IMO, is a spike in USD price due to this new money flowing into BTC as a hedge.

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I feel that since we know this trend, people will try and play that price swing.

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i agree with u 100% as always the january month of each new year gets a nice correction!
(cliff high also predicted lower btc in januay 2018, but going to 13,800’s by March/April and on ward to $35,000!) so i guess we all wait an see with patience and hope ;+)

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The OP’s comments suggested “a correction”, yet the title says “CRASH”. There is no need for any FUD here, OP. Be consistent with your wording. Correction =/= crash

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Very good points there. I am far from a professional trader and know very little about technical analysis and market psychology, but still learning every day. I totally agree that if in doubt, hodl. My decision to swing trade the market around Christmas/New Years will depend on many factors, among them first and foremost what the Bitcoin price will go up/down to.

Time will show, it will be interesting to see how this will play out :slight_smile:

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Not trying to spread any FUD at all. My intention was just to share with you guys what I discovered from looking at the charts previous years. I guess my mind thought “crash” was a better click bait title than “correction” in the moment…

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there is no FUD when u understand the nature and politics of Bitcoin ;+)
sometimes, depending on price, i swing a tiny bit of btc into my ‘Chuck’ aka: Litecoin. (sometimes i get a bit lucky and earn a btc or more :slight_smile: thank u charlie lee lol

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You do also have to consider that with these TA charts we’re speaking in relative margins. There is no prior years of TA that shows BTC dropping from such heights that it’s at now. This year was BTC’s year, and it’s just the start.

Technically, history CAN repeat itself, but I think there’s A LOT more people invested now that understand the growth and potential that BTC has shown and continues to show every day that will more than likely not try their luck at the swing trading game and letting go of their BTC just for some fiat gains.

If we’re talking straight correction predictions…I could potentially see a 10-15% correction downwards, with an IMMEDIATE 20-30% scaling upward trend a day or two after the “correction” happens.

Just think about how many people are HOPING for that correction so that they can buy ALL of your BTC that you sold for capital gains.

Just some thoughts.

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Over the past couple of months, I’ve seen how erratic BTC can be. Truly, it’s the honey badger. Nothing is concrete in these markets. However, my bet is on $13,000 / BTC

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Agreed, and for the record, you are not spreading FUD irrespective of what anyone says. Thank you for sharing your analysis, and correlating between historical data.

It was a good cross comparison, did you do it?

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