Good analysis. Think last years highs were so high it’s just going to take some time for the market to shake that out and gain confidence with the wider public. Once growth does start, steady growth would be desirable otherwise we will likely continue to see these boom then bust extremes.
I think it was after the 2014 pull back that saw a similar exponential rise it took 400+ days before it got back to those levels.
This is a good reminder.
last year we hit the mania phase. a huge correction was inevitable. and we may still se 4-5K levels. from here i think slow,steady growth is what we see, until sometime 5, 10 years down the road this gets some kind of mass adoption as a utility and not just digital gold. i think all the shitcoins going under will only help too and regulation will go along way
id it doesnt see 18K for another say 3 years thats not really a bad thing
I call Bull Shit. It won’t take 3 years to get an ETF and it won’t stay under 18k once one is up and running. And this is just one of the potential catalysts. What would a 40% crash in the DOW or even the NASDAQ do? How about the adoption of crypto by a major retailer that is tired of being ripped off by VISA (Kroger)? Or any number of currently unknown events that are sure to come about (high inflation, war, unknowable’s, etc). Likewise if the price shoots to 10k tomorrow it doesn’t mean we’re going to 50k by end of year.
PS. We are going to 50k by the end of the year.
I’m with Jimbob. The people that got burned and got in at the high may not come back for a while but there were so many people on the sidelines that never pulled the trigger. If an ETF comes out it will be a lot easier for all those people to get in. The whales will also be looking for a non-correlated asset the closer we get to this next market contraction. 50K seems a bit optimistic to me, but I would take it.
Yes it is optimistic, but I assure you that I come to this figure only after the most diligent rectal analysis.
Just trying to fit in with the rest of the proctological prognosticators
The halving is what everyone should be watching. Massive price movements in bitcoin tend to follow halvings. Everything else is just icing.
Let the deflationary effects of the monetary protocol prove itself.
We’re in the second half of reward era 3 right now. Reward era 4 and beyond is where the yearly inflation rate will be lower than supposed USD inflation rate.
I agree 50k by end of year is very much on the cards
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
I think the 2014 pullback was different than what we saw in December 2017.
It could take less than 400 days this time.
Been ~ 200 days already.
I am fully aware of this.
You are right it could be less than 400 I am just saying prepare for the 400+.
The 2013 to 2014 is similar as it was an 87% pull back and then a 411 day recovery. How the hell is that not similar.
You cannot assure us anything in this market. TA has proven time and time again to be just as much BS as these predictions that people like to make.
Pullback is similar.
In terms of popularity like the number of exchanges and crypto space in general are different.
More people are aware of it.
Hardware wallets are well developed.
Bitcoin isn’t just used in the black market.
People are starting to trust bitcoin more.
It’s just a beginning, market is so young. Remember the Internet of the '90? There are so much perspective projects based on blockchain which has chances to change the world! Just sit and relax
I’m with you on this theory. Price is going to be reflected more by adoption and usage. Digital gold sounds cool but I don’t see everyone buying into that idea. I see lightning network having more influence over the long term success and price of BTC than any other investment vehicles being added. People need more reasons to buy BTC other than speculation. Adoption is not simply people/institutions buying bitcoin as an investment. When it’s more efficient o use BTC in daily transactions than other traditional alternatives demand will outstrip supply and the price will rise. Until then, buy the rumor and sell the news.
If we didn’t have all the devs working on sh*tcoins adoption could be a lot more advanced.
That said, I received 3 envelopes today by recorded delivery.
They contained USD, GBP and EUR Visa debit cards which are linked with a smartphone app to BTC, LTC and XRP wallets. I can’t directly use crypto in Starbucks but I can sell crypto to fiat in the shop and use ‘plastic’ or pop to a nearby ATM and pull the traded crypto out as fiat.
Basically with a phone and the cards you can go “full crypto” almost anywhere in the world.
Next step is off the shelf Raspberry Pi ($10) LN payment processors in every store for a true crypto economy.
there is no benefit to using crypto though… especially when A) its not insured and B) its value is volatile.
if you spend $10 worth of crypto for a pizza and the value of the crypto skyrockets you end up paying $100 for that pizza.
its years if not a decade from being adopted as a real currency. its use as currency right now is really limited to 3rd world areas without stable financial institutions and illegal trade
Of course there is, you are removing banks from the equation.
If my local pizza shop goes crypto only I buy with crypto and enjoy the pizza, not bothered what happens to the price of crypto in the future.
removing banks is not something most people care about. banks provide them easy access, easy ways to pay, lines of credit, and most of all they insure their money.
i hate banks as much as the next guy, but to the every day 1st world citizen, banks of a ton more value, convience, and security then crypto does and that is unlikely to change anytime soon
bitcoins value is as a high risk investment and store of value. it really has litttle working for it as a currency:
-fees are high
-transactions take long
-transactions are irreversible, so if you fuck up money is gone
-no insurance, if you are hacked of defrauded FDIC isnt giving you your life savings back
-no lines of credit
-highly voltile daily price point. makes it tough to budget
-not as widely accepted
As far as “i dont care what i pay for pizza” that is nonsense. you could be throwing away 3%, 5%, 10% of your money over the course of a year. here is a good example. my wife and bought bicycles back in october. Mine was $1200 USD and hers was $800 USD.
combined we spent $2000. a week later, we still spent $2000. a year from now, we would still have spent $2000. the value of what we spent will stay relatively static. we can budget it on that, we can plan purchases on that stability.
Lets say we purchased that with bitcoin instead of cash. the price of bitcoin at the time was about $6000. so it would have cost us 0.33 bitcoin to buy the bikes for $2000 USD.
2 months later, bitcoin was at $18,000. and that .33 bitcoin we spent would have been worth $6000 instead of $2000 meaning we just paid TRIPLE the price for those bikes. had we waited 2 months, we could have paid 0.11 bitcoin instead of 0.33 bitcoin.
it is REALLY tough to budget and plan purchases with that kind of volatility.
it all boils down to this… unless im a technically literate person who hates banks and has enough wealth to accept massive risk and is willing to trade convience to stick it to the man, sticking with the current banking system is an easy choice.
its going to take a major, catastrophic blow ot the dollar/banking system/word economy or MAJOR resolution to the issues listed above with crypto for it to becomes mainstream currency, let alone THEEEE currency