CME Jan Futures End Tomorrow Feb 23 - Manipulation Theory?

Something that has been in my mind is the CME/CBOE futures markets on Bitcoin.

Looking back at the previous month contract end in January, we saw the dip. It all led up to the futures contract expiring, with Bitcoin sitting just under $11,000.

Sure.
1 piece of data in a fractal complex market.
Sure.

Let’s try data point 2, expiring tomorrow.

Shorting Bitcoin futures must be lower than $11,000 for shorts to earn.

Let’s see how this plays out.

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damn i forgot about them futures!! Yeah, i´m very curious to see how the market will react.
On bitfinex futures, the shorts are falling fast - 19k yesterday, 14k today. Longs are kinda stable around 26k.

I wish i could see the ratio on CME

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Hmmm. The plot thickens. Could this be a monthly occurrence moving forward? Oh those boys in Chicago.

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Bitcoin is dropping again will it go back down to 6k?

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Yeh, sure. But the market corrects itself. The intrinsic value of BTC is so king.

@CryptoDan - I see all things in this market. We must begin understanding how it moves!

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Bitcoin will be at around 9, 900 at 2:45 when the contract settles. This is done to extract money from all the bulls who were excited and bet on Bitcoin being way above 10K which it looked like it was going to be. The contract sellers are the big boys. The contract buyers are the little guys. The contract expires worthless and the the writer of the contract keeps the premium. Free money … rinse and repeat. Wall Street at its finest. After that … it will resume its upside move.

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Interesting. I’ll keep my eye on this. BTC is beast. It’ll come back for sure!

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Most def. The best part about this, because I am glass half full kind of guy: this allows a regular entry point to purchase more BTC.

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With last months dip there was a lot of factors that played along with the future contracts. So idfk if it would go further down than 9,200 but whom knows…

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Based on my take, and I am not a financial advisor, no it will not dip back down to 6k. That was buyers market for sure and if it does happen again, because you never know, buy more when you can. Remember it’s an investment, you can lose it all. So use money you can afford to lose or have set aside for this venture.

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Too bad Wall street couldn’t just GTFO of our crypto. I hope there’s a time when they don’t matter. I liked it better without them.

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My two cents:

The big money shorting the mighty Bitcoin for the Futures market was essentially a one-time play, or rather, twice in January, with back to back first time ever expiring contracts between CME and CBOE. February likely to see similar play, but nowhere near the magnitude of what we saw in Dec/Jan. A huge amount of institutional money has entered the fray at this point, so now it’s more of a balancing act vs. hedging. Cannot let it go too low or risk capitulation of entire market.

My thought is that once Futures are underway and third month has passed, that game plan is played out and it will be pretty much business as usual. Dampening harmonic swings. About the most we can expect is less wild swings since now Bitcoin is essentially shortable in a U.S. Market setting.

More concerning IF EVEN REMOTELY TRUE: Those with enough BTC in the game, a massive trading bot operation, and nothing in the futures market were wise enough to see what the herd mentality was and dumped their BTC with perfect timing against the futures expiration to coincide and coincidentally got most everyone to point the finger at the futures market as the blame. Then they used bots to drive up Bitcoin prices, then drive 'em down again repeatedly, but each time a little further. Look up the Picasso blog post by bitfinex’d to see just how massively manipulated our market is.

The same thing just happened two days ago as all TA’s were point at the top of the downtrend channel that’s been in place since January as all eyes were on the daily to close above this channel to confirm new bull run. People started pouring money in, then Bitcoin and nearly all ALT coins began taking a dive pretty much on cue.

Was it indeed investors taking profit as a few well-placed articles published on the major outlets, or was it manipulation designed to shake the weak hands loose?

I have NO EVIDENCE other than what I personally observed myself on the exchanges over the last several weeks. But it bears noting that it may not be futures market nor even institutional money that’s being trumped up as “pros vs. us ‘amateur’ traders” and we’re getting the circles ran around us.

The one thing I can say beyond a shred of doubt: The market suffers widespread manipulation on all the major exchanges on many, many levels almost beyond comprehension and if you’re going to trade the market, you have to learn to trade successfully within that context.

And even though the market is manipulated, at the end of the day, Bitcoin and blockchain is too big to stop a free-market taking place. We all stand to profit and profit well as early adopters. Just be wise. Be careful. Devise a plan and carry it through. Keep your principles about you and fine-tune and adjust every day, every week, every month because the landscape is constantly changing just as fast.

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Thank you for this. No matter who is manipulating crypto, it’s irritating. Massive Jupiter-sized greed is very different than normal peeps just trying to escape slavery and get out of debt and breathe easier.

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The market for tinfoilhats is strong in crypto

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Should be interesting how BTC will play out today.

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Might be worth setting reminders for those dates… who knows…

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With more people recognizing Futures contracts and trying to play around it, I wonder if CMC or Cboe will try something fukie. I personally don’t know what they could do but it just seems like the right strategy.

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Totally agree with you, I got into crypto to get away from all of the Scam’s & manipultion run by the Banksters & Stockborkers & now it looks like they are now trying to manipulate & control the Crypto markets as well, here’s hoping they never get a proper foot in the game.

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