Diesel's Bitcoin T/A

This is my outlook of the post bubble price action. I like to use fibonacci fans and retracement levels to look at how the trends are developing and volume profile to see where the ranges are. I will at times employ the RSI buy only on smaller timeframes.

This is our major downtrend that has been riding the 50% fib wave since late February. One thing to watch for in this chart is the declining volume below 8k… If price were to fall there, it could fall fast without buy support.

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This is a closer look at the downtrend starting at at the beginning of March. Yesterdays fall was a rejection of two different 50% fib downtrend fans. As with the first chart our major point of support is around 8k, and a fall below that could spell trouble…

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The highlighted areas are the areas that I am most interested in.

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Listen and learn -->

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No mention of Tether? shoulda hodl’d tether.

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A quick look at the uptrend of the last couple days. We were rejected at the two longer term 50% waves, and have subsequently fallen through the support of the small uptrend fan and are working our down to my first major level of support. The fan works well on all time frames but remember on smaller timeframes the market is more erratic and less predictable.

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This is a big decision point for bitcoin. were in no mans land in the middle of two long term ranges. We are still just traveling around the major (blue) 50 fibonacci fan… In our shorter term downtrend (black) we are fighting our way up through the fan, and now we are beginning to try and power through the fib retracements. There is significant resistance right where we at and up above us at around 9400 (red square), if we could break those two points we have clear sailing up to our major (green) trendline.

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Zoomed in 15 minute view, shows all of the larger trends at play. Our recent uptrend is producing higher highs, but 9k is holding strong for now.

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9k rejected for now. we returned to our 50% fib levels to consolidate.

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Breakdown of the fib fan which signals that our uptrend is not very strong. The uptrend may not be over.

We could get back to 9k by holding 8250 which is the 50% grey retracement, then back to 9k, but we have to hold at 8250 or we are out of support until 76-7800.

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Tick chart showing the interplay between the levels. The weekends tend to have lower volume which means that it is tougher to break through resistances and supports. This means a return to the mean, which is what the 50% levels represent.

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We are still trending downwards with the 50% Fibonacci wave lines. Still looking for support around the 8250 area if we have hope of bouncing.

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The 8250 price point has been reached and is providing us with support. For this run to have legs, we are going to have to break above our two 50% fib fan lines first and foremost. I am also going to say that we need to break them with strength. If we float around them all day, then we are surely just gearing up for another leg down. Note the yellow box on the volume profile. That is not good, what this means is that once price hits these levels, then historically, there has not been enough buy support to catch price, if it falls with strength, expect price to move fast in the yellow area.

As far as my first major target (green box) around 77-7800 look for price action around this trendline to determine what happens next. This is the next area of support that we can look to for a strong bounce back to 9k.

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We may yet be able to hold 8k but if we do the 50% fib wave in blue is going to hold us down. Breaking through this is what we need if we hope to start a bull run.

Updated my long term areas of interest for btc. We have two trend lines for support, and they are at about 7750 and 6500 at the moment.

The 7750 support is a little suspect at this point as the “bounce” that it produced was very weak.

The 6500 support however provided us with a very good bounce so this particular support line is what I am watching for over the coming days.

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8k has failed. Heading downwards toward a rising support level. Lets hope for a high volume bounce here at the green area, because if we cant break above the 50% line marked with a 1 then we will most likely bounce between the 1 line and the line marked with a 2 for the rest of the month.

If price can clear that 1 line then we will also face a challenge breaking above the light blue fib line, however, on the bright side, that line is starting to weaken since price has hit it so many times.

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made a run at breaking through resistance. Looks like we are rejected for the moment but the good news is we found some buyers. They didn’t last long, but they are there.

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Overnight we hit my target from a few posts ago, 7750 and came away with a high volume bounce. The bounce did not have as much volume relative to the previous day, but it did show that we have buyers interested at this level.

Expect price to range between the number 1 bar and the green bar for a while before bitcoin decides where to go next. We should exit this wedge with high volume

If we break down, we should see a range between the number 1 line and the number 2 line.

If we break up that means we have enough strength to start to test further resistances.

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Made a run at breaking out, fell short. Back to point of control to try again.

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haha have you seen this on John Olivers show about cryptocurrencies? It was so funny and also interesting to see what John was going to comment about cryptocurrencies in general.

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