Made my day,
I’d like to share my understanding of how and why Technical Analysis works. It’s a comingled effect of my training as a scientist, business executive and musician. So, yes, it’s a perspective through my set of unique lenses and just perhaps, our lenses could have some “phasic” overlaps.
The basic tenet of Technical Analysis is that sentiment drives all price actions. Simply put, price is a reflection of sentiment. This sentiment is an aspect of duality composed of Fear & Greed. These are opposites of each other and each alone can not be in this world. Both move in waves or cycles and all according to the Fibonacci Golden ratio. Nature’s biology to the spirals of the galaxies and even the helix turns of our DNA strands abide by this Golden Ratio. Sentiment is no exception as its ebs and flows occur according to Fibbonacci sequence.
We are all familiar with Einstein’s special theory of relativity or the below equation which states that mass and energy are the same. It is the energy mass equivalence principle.
To me, this equation embodies sentiment. Allow me to explain. In the equation, C2 is speed of light that posseses the photoelectric effect, and the basis of all life begins with light and this is undeniable. Plants converting light into energy using water and CO2 is an actual application of Einstein’s equation. This way, energy contained in light can be converted to mass, in other words transferred. This is also why water, light and magnetism are essential for a planet to harbor life. Mars has light and water…but it’s dead in magnetism and thus will never harbor life.
Having said the above, sentiment is an expression of energy that is chemically conferred. All biologic material absorbs specific light frequencies. The amino acids have an aromatic molecular ring that are designed to absorb uv light of a specific frequency. What happens when your skin absorbs sun light? It gets warm. There is no difference at the molecular and atomic scales, when light is absorbed, energy is gained. This is called the photoelectric effect for which Einstein was awarded the Nobel Prize. This is why AM sunlight contains more UV-a light and has significant impact on your hormone homeostasis while PM sunlight is more rich in UV-b which activates your vitamin D synthesis as well as sulfates cholesterol. Water is the most dielectric molecule and thus essential for life and broadly absorbs light frequencies to attain the third state of water called the Exclusion Zone (EZ). This EZ coherent structures allow water to have semindocutor like properties that surrounds every protein in our bodies. When water takes on EZ structure, it has a plasma crystal feature and acts similar to a semiconductor which is paramount to enable interaction with photoelectric effects and magnetism. A bit complex and your head could hurt with all the quantum physics. By the way, getting a good dose of AM and PM sunlight is critical to good health. Sunlight in your eyes and skin…no sunscreen needed.
When hormones absorb light, it is a quantum event. The gain of energy in a living being in effect reduces entropy. If entropy is allowed to go to equilibrium, then you have a dead body, a non-living mass. So, thoughts and feelings are quantum events. To me, this means that sentiment has to follow the laws of E=MC2.
I had earlier indicated that sentiment is another form of conferring energy. For me, the bottom line is that not much can come before sentiment except thought and before that is Perfect Thought. There is a famous saying in the Plato’s Republic Essay: “what are words but symbols of symbols; hence twice removed from reality.” You might also be familiar with Plato’s Allegory of the Cave which too has the same rationale.
So, thought is expressed as sentiment, a form of conferred chemical energy, which is reflected and expressed in duality: Fear and Greed. For cryptos, such expression is seen in its price actions. This is also why measuring price movements can’t be perfect as all techniques are twice removed from “Reality”. This is why Elliott Waves need updates and edits with new price action data as it only measures the reflection of sentiment.
It’s important to remember that no Technical Indicator is less than “Twice Removed” from reading sentiment. The only object that can be “once removed” is called a Crystal Ball and unfortunately no living being possesses that. This is why experience is so vital to enhancing the accuracy of TA. More specifically, failure experiences. I’m a firm believer that failures teach better than successes. A novice pianist will always be poor compared to a seasoned pianist. A novice in Technical Analysis will always be poor compared to a seasoned Technical Analyst.
I humbly state the following: As a Technical Analyst, I thought I was pretty good after five years and really good after 10 years. Now, after 15 years, I’ve realized that I’m still improving.