We may be…
We may be…
Personally I’d love to see this bottom in a similar way to 2015 and resume a new uptrend. But I also know that someone with deep pockets knows that’s what everyone wants to see. Maybe it’s the bear market PTSD but I just feel it’s not going to be that obvious.
This guy on youtube made a weekly cycle comparison as well but doesn’t predict drops as low as per the chart you posted. Can never be sure though, seems kinda too repetitive no?
With respect, you just said the bottom wasn’t in yet. That it will only be in when all hope is lost. ‘When Hodlers are forced to sell’.
Yet you followed that up by saying people should not sell. That people should Hodl. That the worst thing people can do is sell at the bottom.
But you just finished saying the bottom wasn’t in yet. So why not sell now? If there is more room to drop why not sell now and buy back in later (and thereby increase the number of coins you will have) after BTC drops further? You did just say the bottom wasn’t in yet. That capitulation hadn’t occurred. So why are you Hodling? Why Hodl when you could sell now and buy back in later at a much lower price?
But then you said about capitulation that ‘Hodlers would be forced to sell’ at capitulation point. In saying that you said that Hodlers have no choice but to sell due to all hope being lost. Therefore all your advise not to sell is meaningless since when all hope is lost Hodlers will sell because they will be forced to sell due to all hope being lost.
With respect, your arguments don’t make sense and are contradictory. I sold my BTC several months ago because all the signs were there that the market was going to continue to slowly bleed. I entered the market again recently and used the funds I gained through selling earlier and now have over twice the number of BTC than I did when I sold.
Hodling is not and never was the answer to surviving a bear market. Hodling was never good advise or a solid investment practice.
If you think the bottom is not in then you have no reason NOT to sell. Why would you hold an asset that you expectt depreciate further? You did just say that the bottom wasn’t in. Why are you holding on to a depreciating asset?
TA is about liklihoods and probability, it’s no guarante of anything.
Although I’m not going to pretend I know for sure, my personal opinion is that we are not at the bottom. This is based on, where is demand coming from? Where is money coming from? As far as I can tell, nowhere.
You have failed to acknowledge that this crypto space now has more money invested in it’s infrastructure that at any point in its 10 year history. Big players with BIG investments.
Do you think that when BAKKT gets rolled out that the market will stay flat with no volume?
Simple question with a simple answer.
Question: Will BAKKT increase the purchase of BTC?
You don’t need a degree in economics to know what happens to the value of a scarce commodity when demand for it increases.
I trade bud. I don’t hold anything just yet. I make money if the price goes down.
I say don’t sell because i believe In bitcoin. And all though I don’t HODL, I do respect those who do. Everyone has their own way of doing things.
I also don’t know where the bottom is going to be. So that’s why I say don’t sell. It’s better to miss the bottom than sell the bottom and get rekt because you panic sold
OTC buys are way up. 3 X more than exchanges
You don’t Hodl but you tell other to Hodl?
You don’t follow your own advise?
I couldn’t agree more . “Wen bottom” is anyone’s guess.
Probability must be our narrative thesis and working paradigm.
Have I told you to hodl?
No I haven’t. I said I respect those who do. Not everyone wants to trade.
I can’t down play people who want DCA and hodl and don’t want them to lose hope and sell the bottom.
At some point in time yes.
Also another way of looking at OTC is if OTC buys are up 3x that also means OTC sales are up 3x…not hard to see why there was no support under $6K spot when it broke. Big money off loading on OTC to get out and not buy the spot support levels. OTC volume does not = bullish narrative.
But you said that Hodlers would be forced to sell due to capitulation …when all hope is lost.
So how can you then tell these Hodlers not to sell when they will be forced to sell?
You make no sense.
Guys, its semantics… please we haven’t got to flame anyone… if you want to hodl that really is ok… just don’t sell when and if it goes lower… patience. and more patience… it will be ok…
Personally, I am looking for a buying opportunity with ICX… I want to become and icx whale!!!
I agree about ICX having a future. Good to add to portfolio.
There seems to be two schools of thought about the current situation.
Analysis of fundamentals and news shows evidence that the bottom is in. A few days ago we had a whale attempt to dump the price but that attempt was immediately rejected and BTC jumped back up to $3,600. Yesterday we had news that the ETF is being withdrawn and the market did not dump. These are both strong fundamentally.
Technical Analysis would suggest that we are in for another drop because the current behavior is almost identical to the $6,000 consolidation which dropped viciously to the $3,000 range. Sideways movement with low volume. Other TA indicators also seem to suggest we are headed down due to triangles and other such things.
Both arguments are pretty valid. It’s really anyone’s guess at the moment. I am currently more unsure about the price direction than I have ever felt.
Great assessment and summary. I think at this point it’s important to alter ones investment strategy to account for both possibilities.
I disagree with your OP and the reasoning behind it. As you stated in later posts that we have had large amounts of infrastructure added. With this being extremely positive news along with the number of large firms getting in the game like Fidelity and others it would make sense that this should have a positive effect on the price.
We have had so much news back and forth on the ETF over the last year I feel that no matter the outcome of it there would have been little effect on the market in either direction much like what we saw.
Also as mentioned many deals are happening in OTC trades which the charts do not show. This is also where I feel the big firms are accumulating their BTC. As this asset doesn’t have to go through an exchange like stocks it makes the charts less and less useful for determining macro views. They work for the micro environment that they are reporting on but not much more. The large firms do not publicly announce platform unless it is included in their 5 and 10 year plans.
Overall I wouldn’t say the bottom is in or not no one really knows and the lack of negative market action due to the ETF really doesn’t tell us anything at all. People were in a stupid emotional state during the time that you are referring to when you say that it would have caused a nose dive. We have a more stable support crowd right now along with larger players entering the market. We will see the high volatility times come and go several more times. Even though I have been silent here for the most part I am still mining and at a profit expanding slightly in some ways and still buying BTC.
How am I not making sense?
Is anyone else having trouble?
Hodlers will be forced to sell. I’m saying don’t be that Hodlers.
Capitulation is forced. It’s an emotional feeling that will make you feel like all hope is lost!
All I’m saying is don’t let that emotional feeling get the better of you and sell the bottom.
Don’t see how you can alter an investment strategy to account for both possibilities.
A. Sell your coins now and keep funds on an exchange, ready to buy back in at a lower price (risky).
B. Leave your coins in your wallet and hope the market doesn’t tank again.
Every passing day increases the danger of a flash crash occurring the longer the market trades sideways.
BTC offers very few clues about which way it will break when exiting the apex of a triangle.
If BTC is going to crash it will do so in a flash. All you can do is set stop losses and hope that Whales or big traders don’t send out probes to find sell triggers in order to cause a crash and then immediately buy back. Is this perhaps what happened a few days back when BTC fell through the $3470 support and then bounced straight back above it?
Right now the market is a liar. Don’t believe anything it tells or shows you. Bots/day traders are running rampant right now. Check out the price of BTC right now for proof of this.