I believe the bottom is in

bitcoin

#82

Enjoyed your post, and if I may take a moment to kindly educate: Equities (stocks) absolutely do not have to go through exchanges, and for
moving the big blocks of equities dark pools are indeed a very real thing. That’s all :v:.


#83

In my experience the CME expiration date always causes a dip for all those CME shorters. Are we seeing longs on the CME this time?


#84

Someone said bottom is in ? let me get my FIBs asap.

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#85

:red_car: :police_car: pulls over random car

:oncoming_automobile: Are you writing me a ticket?

:policeman: No, I’m showing you the bitcoin chart. Price hasn’t retraced to the 0.786. Would you buy bitcoin here?

:oncoming_automobile: Yeah…I guess :confused:

:policeman: Step out of the car and place your hands behind your back.


#86

I don’t know, nobody really knows, I’m just forgetting about my bags for a couple of years.
I have little doubt we’ll blast off again so all this shit in the middle is a waste of energy.


#87

Morning Buddy, hows it going,you all good?
I am still over trading Nat Gas fella…
1 BTC of nat gas gives 2017 returns,its volatile…:surfing_man:
Still hodl a big chunk of bitcoin and KMD with a bigger chunk of cash on the side, but i am loving shorting US of A tech giants… I have gone full Bear in that market… :rofl:
:beers:


#88

20 year bonds continue to go up. Always a good sign of a continuing Bear market.


#89

By that I mean there are still too many shills/noobs in the space.

Another interesting point, so far the bear market has been as long as the 2014/15 one. It would be odd for the longest bull market in crypto’s history to not also have the longest bear market in it’s history.


#90

oh no we are doomed… someone please put some fuel in the rocket… I was thinking it was moon time baby!!

Crash


#91

The bottom is not in.

The reason the classic argument that “we have to hit capitulation where hodlers are forced to sell” doesn’t resonate because we are still in the boom/bull market for the credit cycle. The last credit contraction was in 2007-2008, before the existence of Bitcoin. We don’t know how a credit contraction will affect BTC, but people can speculate.

As we are still in a credit expansion phase, people are still looking for higher yields. The general public has been chased away from crypto, but the enthusiasts are not forced to sell either. Capitulation in this case means the enthusiasts stop putting in money into crypto because they can’t (lost job, or didn’t get paid if they worked for the US gov’t, but that at least, is temporarily over) or they find other opportunities that they believe provide better yield than crypto. I haven’t seen much evidence of that yet (certainly not on Bitcoin Pub).

As I pointed out in a previous post, The Argument Against Dollar Cost Averaging, the money coming in from crypto enthusiasts is preventing Bitcoin from bottoming out, but it certainly isn’t enough to push the price back above $4,000.

So while I have a strategy to buy at the bottom (again, in the previous post), it isn’t foolproof. It might not even work. The only way we know 100% where the bottom is is when it already passed us by. So if $3,500 is the bottom, we need it to go back to $4,000 (preferably $4,500+) and sustain that for at least a month so we can be sure.


#92

Worthy argument, yes, we do NOT know how will BTC behave when the major economy indexes go south.

Gold did not had a good time on the 2008 bear market either and it is a very known and popular hedge.


#93

We will have a fairly good idea in the next 48 hours where BTC’s price is going.

As can be seen in the first chart BTC has been is a descending triangle since late November. It broke down recently at the first apex.

As can be seen in the second chart it is now approaching the apex of the second descending triangle formation.

The price of BTC has successfully broken through the base of the descending triangle a number of times in the past month. All attempts have failed, with the bounce back being very robust each time. The most recent (this morning) being especially robust. It would appear there are plenty of buyers at the $3500 level and above.

The number of shorts on Bitfinex has dropped by 1500 from 25358 to 23859 today alone. Does this reveal something?

The recent ETF withdrawal had no real impact on BTC price, other than the usual day traders preempting a tumble that didn’t happen, with the price regaining it’s previous position very quickly.

Now that the US Gov. shutdown has ended (for now) the BAKKT approval process can continue and BAKKT may be operational by beginning of March. The promise of BAKKT appearing on the horizon may be enough to keep buyers in the game at $3500 and may be the catalyst BTC needs to gain momentum again?

Triangles, Bollinger Bands, Elliot Waves, fractals and biased claims of BTC dumping to $2k don’t mean squat if a catalyst comes along and lifts the spirits of investors.

When BTC bottomed out in 2017 it didn’t need to retest that bottom for a second time. Therefore, it is not a requirement that BTC needs to retest $3150 again.

So if $3,500 is the bottom, we need it to go back to $4,000 (preferably $4,500+) and sustain that for at least a month so we can be sure.

Maybe BAKKT will be enough to keep BTC afloat above $3500 long enough for interest / hope/ anticipation to return and entice money back into the game?


#94

when people stop making threads like these the bottom will be in


#95

We need more despair… and then the bottom will be in.

This bottom is certainly “in”.

Crash


#96

7UP. How much time would need to have elapsed after the last such thread as this before you would say the bottom is in? Weeks,? Days? Or haven’t you worked that bit out yet?


#97

And the answer is a breakdown in the $3,500 support levels.

The reason the ETF withdrawal had no major effect was it allows the CBOE to resubmit it at a later date and restart the 240 days countdown (for the SEC to decide) again. If CBOE didn’t withdraw and SEC denied them, my guess is the SEC will reverse their decision the next day and put the CBOE/VanEck ETF in “review” status, like they did with other ETF proposals last year. That is much worse as there is no definitive timeline for the SEC to complete the review so the ETF proposal is effectively in limbo for months, if not years.

As for BAKKT, it doesn’t offer the gateway for institutional money to access Bitcoin like an ETF does, so I don’t think it will have the large positive push that you are looking for when it finally comes out.


#98

Great. The $3500 support didn’t hold. BTC is now stalking $3415.

The bottom is in!!!

Thanks Crypto49er!!!


#99

@HopingToMakeProfit unfortunately, this is only the start, we shall get rekt much more.

I am expecting, (my opinion) to be rumbling along to lower levels and then capitulation. If your view is different then that is fine, I wish you the best with your own thinking.

I am looking to buy as much ICX at sub 0.11. So this is the game for me. I am hoping we have not bottomed yet. If it has, c’est la vie.

Crash


#100

Care to expand on your reasoning Crash101?

‘This is only the start’?

If this is only the start wtf was falling from $20,000 to $3500? Just a dip?

BTC is at almost 83% down from its ATH. How can that only be ‘the start’ if there is only 13% left from the ATH before BTC hits zero?

BTC’s decline is more towards the conclusion than the ‘start’.


#101

Can’t speak for Crash101, but I think his point is we are at the start of the capitulation portion of the cycle. Yes, dropping from $20,000 to $3,300 is painful, but a lot of people don’t look all the way back from $20,000. I keep hearing a bitcoin maximalist that i don’t wish to name saying “it doesn’t feel like a bear market, it feels like it’s a sideways market”. My guess is his mindset only counts bitcoin prices from the last ~60 days.

BTW, I was right about the CBOE ETF. They just reset the clock to 240 days by resubmitting their application (and the clock hasn’t started yet). https://www.coindesk.com/cboe-re-files-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf-proposal