If the market crashed on an ETF postponement, what would it do on a rejection of an ETF?


#1

I am gob-smacked at the unbelievably ridiculous and vastly over reactionary response by the market to the postponement of the EFT application by the SEC.

The SEC simply said they wanted more time to consider the application, yet this caused the market to nose-dive?

What would have happened (might still happen) if the SEC had said no to the application?

This is a terrifying thought actually.

Would it have killed BTC?

Would BTC have plummeted and remained in the low $3k and languished there until the next ETF application? And then if that next ETF application was rejected would BTC plummet to $1k?

When BTC broke the descending long term trend line a few week back there was no mention of a new ETF application. Yet, BTC, and consequently the market as a whole, was finally become bullish again. So, as few weeks ago BTC didn’t have an ETF to look forward to yet was gaining in price. Almost touching $8.5K. Then along comes an ETF application and the market starts to crumble daily?

The SEC wants more time to give a thorough and robust consideration of the ETF request, But the result of that greater consideration (much better than a quick no) is that the market crashes?

In actual fact, it seems that the ETF application itself has destabilised the market!


#2

BTC still on a downtrend channel … and most likely will stay there for a good while.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE


#3

Yes, we all know BTC is on a down trend since just a few days ago (OKEx drama and revelation of BAKKT).

Define ‘good while’


#4

not downtrend alone, it is on a downtrend-channel as the graph shows.


#5

Define for a ‘good while’.


#6

It’s a great time to be dollar cost averaging. I wish I had more money to put into it during this downward trend.


#7

Somebody decided they’re not done buying at low prices yet.


#8

@zlikar

What does that mean?


#9

Somebody pushed the price down and used the ETF postponement news as a catalyst.

Call me a conspiracy theorist for all I care.


#10

BTC still in long term uptrend facing a short term downtrend…and likely wont stay here long :smile:
Not sure where or when it will bottom but i just keep averaging in.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE


#11

Yes, I just recently posted something similar on the BTC price thread too


#12

No it will not kill btc because it does not change the fundamentals. BTC will still be a decentralized peer to peer currency/store of value with a finite supply.


#13

I don’t think this drop has much to do with the ETF decision delay. Maybe it accelerated it slightly, but overall I think it was based on TA. Falling wedge still in play. :ok_hand:


#14

@zlikar

I wont call you a conspiracy theorist. On the contrary, I am fully with you in your belief. I have said similar previously. For example, the small, obscure, never heard of before, in the back ass of nowhere crypto exchanges that were hacked for a few million $ but the ‘market’ responded by losing $10 BILLION as a result of those small hacks? Nah. It’s BS.

I never sold any of my coins just because of an exchange hack. Why would I? In fact, I asked the question in several forums if anyone on the forum or anyone they knew, or anyone they knew anyone who had sold their coins as a result of exchange hacks. The answer was no. It was BS. Someone used the hacks as a front to hide their nefarious dealings.

The way I see it is like this…there is no way a huge number of small retail hodlers of BTC all in perfect sync panicked and sold their BTC just because the SEC postponed. No way.

I believe that the day traders and bigger fish knew that the even bigger fish would use the postponement news as a rouge, a camouflage to hide their actions to drive down prices (sell orders). The day traders and bigger fish are aware of the attempts and tricks of the bigger fish to drive prices down in order to increase their bag. So the day traders had their fingers on the sell button as well. Once the news about the postponement broke they all hit their sell buttons.The rest is history.

I don’t think the retail investor even had a chance to sell or even had the inclination to sell on the postponement news. Why would they? The postponement news wasn’t bad news. It was no news. So don’t worry Zlikar, I am with you in your thoughts.


#15

@Lance

No offence Lance. I am sure you are ‘in it for the tech’, and everything, but, you need to understand, BTC has the same fundamentals now as it did way back in history when it was worth like $.05 cents. If BTC went back to like $0.05 cents now it would be considered dead by the vast population. Being used by a handful of cyber punks on a the dark web would not really constitute BTC life.


#16

no offence taken, when you say dead i take it as going to zero and no one is using it all (no demand). I just dont see that happening without something that changes the fundamentals, like the block chain being hacked.


#17

Personally, I find little value in spending my time speculating as to why short term volitility happens. Because sometimes, it just happens. there isn’t always specific news that drives short term price action. That’s how retail investors get bit, short term trading based on the news. IMO, it’s simply important to acknowledge that volitility exists, and use TA and risk mgmt to place your trades according to the charts. News plays more of a factor in my long term hodling strategy. SEC delays ETF, tis but a scratch.


#18

I agree 100% I do not understand those that constantly post stories about not understanding why a strong Korean BBQ fart could shift the markets. The amount of money in the crypto market is extremely tiny so any of the major economic players can push it at will and the general population in crypto are very skittish to begin with. It doesn’t take much to shift them.

Either trade your heart out and make money or hodl. Markets in general have swings and we are only 200 days +/- since the ATH. We may have another 200 so if your are an investor and not a trader there is no sense in stressing over every swing one way or the other.


#19

If you can stomach the broccoli you’ll get rewarded with dessert.

@ twobitidiot wrote

Look at the billion dollar network tokens (ranked by the % they have fallen since ATH). It’s illuminating:

Bottom 5 are IOTA, XRP, Cardano, NEM, and Tron - all down +90% from ATH. All happen to be in my anti-portfolio.

The “money tokens” are all in the top 10.

If you look at cryptoassets as a % of how far they are from an all-time high, some expected names in the “outperformers.” 0x, BTC, DCR, BNB among those holding up ok.

4 of the top 10 are @ barrysilbert ’s core crypto coins, and he only picked 5…that’s pretty good

h/t @ onchainfx

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkF8-_VXoAAA_Ub.jpg:large


#20

Brian Kelly: If You’re Selling Bitcoin Because of ETF Delay, You’re Doing it Wrong

https://www.ccn.com/brian-kelly-if-youre-selling-bitcoin-because-of-etf-delay-youre-doing-it-wrong/

Kelly explained:

“It [bitcoin] has had a tremendous run off of $5,800, and that was all really because people thought there was going to be a bitcoin ETF. The SEC came out and postponed that decision. A little spoiler alert, on September 30, SEC will likely postpone in again, because the market is not ready for it and the SEC hasn’t had the answers to their questions yet.”

Ethereum Classic Hype: Kelly Weighs In

Throughout the past week, while all of the major cryptocurrencies and tokens have performed poorly against the US dollar, ethereum classic has demonstrated a solid movement against both bitcoin and the US dollar.

Kelly noted that the price of ethereum classic has surged by over 30 percent mostly due to the integration of ETC on Coinbase and Robinhood, which is expected to open the ETC market to retail investors in US markets.

He said:

“Ethereum classic has been up 30 percent over the last month. Really the driver of ethereum classic are two things: Coinbase and Robinhood. This is the first time the retail investors will kind of get a real easy way to get into ethereum classic. Coinbase added it to their institutional side, I believe over the next week or so, they’re going to be adding it to their retail side of the platform.”

Led by Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group and Grayscale Investments, ethereum classic is also one of the four cryptocurrencies alongside bitcoin, zcash, and ethereum to have a publicly tradable instrument dedicated to facilitate the trading of ETC amongst retail investors in the regulated US market.

As cryptocurrency businesses continue to develop infrastructure around ethereum classic, likely due to the clarification of the SEC on the non-security nature of ethereum, the value, volume, and user base of ETC are expected to increase at a fairly rapid rate.