Massive sell off in January


#1

Normally each year for 6-7? years in a row there was a massive sell off in January.

A sell off in early 2018 was logical as it had crazy new heights, but the question is, as we are now at attractive lows, will there be a sell off? Of course we’re still 4x up compared to January 2017, so the argument of there maybe not being a sell off might be irrelevant.

How were previous years (as I only joined in August 2017), was Dec/Jan a high in 2016 2015 2014 etc?


#2

it just depends on what part of the cycle BTC is in :man_shrugging:t2:

Each rectangle goes from last days of Dec to first days of Feb


#3

I want to side with you on this @HarryvdV (and probably will), but there were many events this year that we supposed to lead to price pumps based off of previous years, yet the opposite happened. G20, Chinese New Year, and so on all lead to regression in price action after solid previous data showing increase in price.

It’s possible that most expecting a sell-off into the new year would lead to a pump instead. I still believe that most of 2019 will move sideways in these ranges though ($2k - $5K) . Just thinking out loud and playing devil’s advocate :stuck_out_tongue: .


#4

Thanks for this manuel asdfadsf


#5

The second I posted I had the same thought when you said that certain events would be a “guaranteed” increase and the opposite happened.

At this point I also feel that we could be bouncing in 2-5K during 2019 and that we should perhaps be “happy” with 4K as in 1 month from now 4K might feel “high”.


#6

I wonder if Chinese New Year :red_gift_envelope: will cause massive dumping again. Maybe we’ll see another bump after tax season.


#7

or next G20 meeting ? when consensus pamp ?


#8

2019 all of the things will pump bitcoin that the market expected to pump bitcoin in 2018.

Chinese new year
Wall street bonuses
Tax refunds
Consensus
ETF
Bakkt

:bogged: “They don’t believe it. Pomp it”
:arthur::rocket:


#9

Good topic. I have been thinking about this very issue. The big January dump.

Like you said, will it happen now that we are already very low? I think the entire market is oversold. Bitcoin should be at least $5000 but the past year scared everyone shitless.

I think the big fall of 2018 shook out a lot of new crypto people but the old timers who have been through this are still around. It also shook out a lot of shitcoins and I think a lot of shitcoin investors will be back but they will be primarily in coins in the top 30 or so.

I’ve given up trying to predict what this market will do because it isn’t rational and it’s impossible to predict. I have my sights set on a few key price points for reentry.


#10

Not all of us new to the space were scared shitless. Sure, it’s been painful at times, but for myself, I got in on a lark with fun money. I still dca a little each week and am developing the patience of a saint. I’m playing the long game and don’t expect anything major for another 5 years or so. That’s not based on anything other than just being a time window I’m establishing before I decide if I’m going to cash out.


#11

I feel like Bitcoin has not been following it’s usual patterns this year. I think all bets are off now that institutional money has been buying over the counter in droves. They are changing things.
I am not sure what will happen next year. It could dump and then soar to new heights by the end of the year. No one knows.
I am thinking more of the the former than the later. Most of the minds I have been listening to think this will be an extended bear market. Which I don’t mind, more accumulation for me and market cleansing.