Mike Fishy and Automation System Programming (Bots)


#141

No, the bots can’t ruin me, they have a set maximum limit of 15 BTC.

Also, been there, a logic error lead to some losses not long ago, also when starting out, I was not ready for the pump and dumps and other shenanigans, which also lead to some losses. I thought it would be just like Forex trading right? Wow, was I wrong.

Yup, as soon as it hits 60+ BTC, I move 45 BTC to a Trezor, working on Trezor number 3 now.

I didn’t read all that B90x stuff right, I thought Peter said you needed 90 of em! :joy:

Stay Fishy


#142

I’ve noticed this as well and been working hard at building different strategies to try to turn profits even in this stagnant market. Make no bones about it…it ain’t easy by any stretch of the imagination. This may sound weird, but I am kind of getting further and further away from going on traditional TA style probability and predictive analysis with candlesticks and focusing strictly on the order books and the rolling trades log and coupling that with signals coming from the surrounding markets and even other exchanges. Mostly I’m looking for patterns in either the size of the orders coming through and how they change the direction of the price action and clustering of orders around certain points as a way to form some sort of predictive indicator of what’s to come next…if nothing else, during this dry spell, I’m taking time out to build visual heads up displays on all that data that’s flowing through the pipelines. One I’m lately truly fascinated by is the trades log activity as seen below. The bigger the trade size, the bigger the bubble. The higher the price, the higher up on the Y axis.

oh, and while I’m typing this, I see Fishy’s 37 bitcoin order (along the way to reaching 60 flow though…)

I have to say, @Mike_Fishy is absolutely spot on that just building a bot or even a few bots and just letting them run maintenance free is NOT the reality. I am constantly tending to and improving mine as well. If nothing else, I’m learning a ton about what’s really happening behind the scenes that simply isn’t exposed to most people trading these markets. Capturing data, analyzing and trying to build bots to play into those trends seems to be a never-ending one-up-the-other-bots game.

I actually started wondering if I was doing things the hard way and went and grabbed a couple of the open source bots off the shelf and fired them up…the one I tested most was Zenbot and boy is that thing full of bugs. It seems to miraculously make profit when in simulation mode, but the moment you go live with it, it’s all losses. Maybe I just had the knack for turning it on at just the right time to realize those losses but over a couple day’s experimenting, I have to say I’m simply not impressed.


#143

LOL, stop pointing out my market manipulations :stuck_out_tongue:

Always be Fishy!


#144

Have you found these algos effective on traditional markets at all or is it because Crypto is so nascent and the lack of institutional order flow means pricing inefficiencies are common?


#145

Forex bots are much easier and only need simple EMA/RSI as there is no volume issues and the market is reasonably stable and easy to deal with. The fixed rate fees also make it easier, it doesn’t change much and decimal places are known and stable, but you need to work will much larger amounts of funds, so not affordable for the average person.

Must admit, the Forex bot has made significantly more than the Crypto bot and needs far less attention.

However, I wanted to experience the “wild west” as people called it and see just how smart you can make a bot that deals with all the stuff that goes on. It is actually much harder than I thought it was going to be and the code just keeps growing and needs a more powerful computer to run it now than the one I started with. I can say, it’s not for the faint of heart to be here.

One thing I have learned in my many decades, life revolves around risk and reward. The more risk you are willing to take, the higher the potential reward, but also the greater the potential fall. Risk adverse people will probably stick to traditional markets. The real risk takers, willing to go out on a limb and make the most out of life, are the people who truly live - win or not, you can’t say you didn’t live on the edge!

Stay Fishy


#146

Who wants to live a life and one day think what if? Might as well give it a good crack, just dont pour all your eggs into that basket!


#147

Seeking a little help here on algos that can help me buy nearer the lowest lows and highest highs when price swings in reversals.

Up until recently, I mostly used candle stick data and order book data to make the calls on buying and selling, but I’m leaving close to 30% of the potential net profit on the table with each swing, so I’m trying to figure a better buying and selling algo…mostly I’m focusing on the buying as trailing stop losses that get more aggressively close to the price action works well enough for the moment.

Anyway, to cut to the chase, I feel the next step is incorporating the live trade action into the decision making and I now have live trades feeds downloading smoothly with low latency and I’m trying to come up with a way to tell just from the flow of trades when a low price is likely reached. I am getting good enough at getting within range to buy. That is to say, I’m good at figuring out when the low is imminent to within 1 to 2 minute span, but I’m not doing so well guessing the bottom number and prices tend to retrace a good bit before I make the buy decision.

Here’s a good example from BNB/BTC just in the last hour…my bot called it right and got ready to buy, but missed the lows twice in a row by whopping 0.9% (approx):

What do you guys do to get your buy orders filled as close to the local lows as possible?


#148

My bots don’t use candlestick data. It fetches the current price (last completed order) every 2 seconds and loads that data into arrays. My bot can track it to the bottom, identify the bottom and trend reversal at much finer granularity. That’s why it is so aggressive. Comes at a higher risk though.

To help mitigate some risk, I include a buy lag, which is based on tracking all CDAs that are dumping. This lags buy orders to follow other bots in the system that are trading on other CDAs. When the trend reversal is indicative across the spectrum, it is more likely to be a good time to buy in.

Candlestick data at 1 minute is not as effective as price data every 2 seconds. Bot needs a lot more memory to do it, but works quite well when done right.

However, I am going to say, it does increase your risk levels.

When thinking about it and looking at charts, put a piece of paper over the part where you can see the trend reversal, so you can’t see it. Then start asking, how do I identify when the trend reversal is going to happen (when you can’t see it)?

The EMA lagging indicators wont catch the bottom, but do give better indication of a trend reversal, but won’t make you as much. So now you are going to be “guessing” the trend reversal, which is why it carries more risk.

Switching from candlestick data to rapid price data will make a big difference though, even with your EMA calculations as they will be more granular.

Stay Fishy


#149

So if I understand, in fact say we have to look for leading indicators for a trend reversal? Nice job again man! :slight_smile: :slight_smile:


#150

Holy cow, I nearly missed the boat here…Talk about gettin myoptic and forgetting to step back to examine the big picture! For whatever reason, I was going down the rabbit hole of trying to come up with “new algo” to analyze the live trade data when I should’ve realized straightaway the candle charts are just constructs of the live trading action. So, all I have to do is just take the live trade feeds and turn them into my own candles…well, metaphorically speaking, that is…really its just cutting straight to the chase and building the EMAs off the trade data and start making the same buy/sell decisions from these EMAs instead of the EMAs from the 1 minute lagging data.

Related image

My word. 30 second candles, 15 second candles, even 5 second candles on the charts that have the volume to justify it! This oughta be downright interesting.


#151

Well, I had an interesting morning. I was banned for 10 minutes by Binance for low order fulfillment ratio.

Turned out I had a rounding error (or rather, I forgot to round the estimated price to replace an order) and ended up placing about 500 orders for every one filled for a ridiculous 0.0000000000001 price difference.

Yup, 499 cancelled orders to 1 that actually filled. I guess I can’t really blame Binance on that one.

Nothing new to share other than that. Although I have to say the market seems, well super flat (or maybe “thin” is the better word) lately. So I have been working on getting more aggressive with the orders…I guess much like Fishy’s stop-light bot. And yeah, it seems to be making Binance more money than it’s making me, but at least it’s printing something.


#152

Going to admit, the bots not printing much as of late, have turned to the more traditional punting :stuck_out_tongue:

Forex is making a huge amount lately due to the turmoil, but when it settles down again, you can bet the Crypto market will start its shenanigans again :slight_smile:

Stay Fishy


#153

Did some minor bug fixes and now the market is going sideways, the Autobot does it’s job really well.

Volume still seems to be an issue, will be nice to see more volume on trades at some point as things just seem excessively quiet compared to previous months.

While it is quiet, building in some additional functionality and better reporting.

Stay Fishy


#154

Hi, not much happening in this thread lately. I’ve been exploring some of John Elhers’ works on building predictive indicators and it has much improved my understanding of the market forces and there’s a lot of good math behind his works. His writings breakdown the pure math into solid analogies and explanations in English outside just the math in a way that makes it much easier to digest what’s going through the author’s mind in developing these indicators.

Meanwhile, I’m looking at possibly adding an element of sentiment analysis into an overarching bot orchestration and came across this site:

What do y’all think?


#155

Are you guys considering alpha or beta testers for your ASPs (bots)? I’d totally set aside a safe amount of BTC in a dedicated Binance account, dedicated PC, and let it run. I am not a prgrammer, BTW. Just a curious speculator that’s fascinated reading your theories (Weibull Distribution, k-nn, etc) and willing to give them a shot, learn from them, and send feedback.


#156

Fishy mentioned at one point building and reselling on Azure platform, I think – no idea if that’s still in the cards as it’s been a while since he mentioned it and volume and volatility literally fell out of the market (which makes it that much harder to pull profits out of thin air…).

I have no plans to take on the pain of user support. However, I’m planning to inject some of foundational aspects of the framework I’ve built into an upcoming open source project, Prospero – announced here: Introducing a NEW Open Source Initiative: Downloadable Portfolio Management App!


#157

Fishy would be too foolish to share his edge…


#158

Au contraire mon ami… the more people use his trade bots in the market, the trends become a self-fulfilling prophecy.


#159

Yes but as soon as you do that, you skew your risk reward and the math all of a sudden doesnt make sense, over time. If it were that easy everyone would do it :slight_smile:


#160

That’s why I’m personally looking to @Mike_Fishy and/or @mwlang for a final product because I surely do not have the skills to build it. I do have the will to use it and submit feedback. In short, I’d rather get a bot from within this community than elsewhere. Especially when both aforementioned guys are exchanging knowledge and tweaking live with us, it sounds like fun!