My thoughts on "Signals"

#1

Over the last month I have been dabbling with both free and paid “Signal” services.

These groups, often using Telegram or Slack channel will offer it’s members crypto currency signals for which the users can choose to execute. A coin is given along with entry point to enter in (and supposed expected ROI %).

So far, the results have sucked. From having quite a few trades that made anywhere from 2-5%, too several bags that took a large percentage from me. I took a look back at all those signal trades, took the numbers and did the math. The end result is that I have barely broken even.

To me it seems too good to be true - someone else telling you what to choose and what profit to take. For me, I am becoming less trusting of what other people’s word is. I have decided to just follow my own trades, learn TA to the best of my ability, and at least then if mistakes are made, it will be truly my own doing.

Anyone else has in the past or currently use crypto signals? Would love to hear your thoughts too!

EDIT: I have never used my full account balance on a signal trade, just not that stupid!

-Darcy C

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#2

people will take 1 of 2 paths:

  1. they will never learn to “fish” for themselves… thus borrowing heavily from others for “wisdom”
  2. they will learn to fish themselves (a’la #b90x and a lot of training and practice) and become self-sufficient.

both paths can potentially lead to profit… but only one is truly empowering and sustainable.

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#3

I edited the post I did to reflect additional thoughts. For me the later path you mentioned - learning by myself (from others too) is the better option. It doesn’t help I’m starting with less than $2000 but it’s a challenge that I’m willing to take on :slight_smile:

Darcy C

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#4

are signals trying to pump certain coins?

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#5

The groups I was part of didn’t (to the best of my knowledge), but they do indeed exist. Discord & Telegram channels are notorious for this. Stay far away haha.

Darcy C

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#6

I see a ton of “signal channels” in Russian language groups. Some of them charging as much as 0.5 btc as a joining fee.
Guys, nobody knows the future. And real whales won’t sell you a signal, unless you are another whale.

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#7

Okay, i made a huge mistake earlier yesterday, take a look at this. Done via a signal via MH. Man, got rekt, took on a 32% loss. #rekt

Entry point is where the red line is. Again, not full account balance used on this trade, but still was a big lesson to learn - no stop loss used! eek.

Darcy C

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#8

You didn’t set a stop loss?

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#9

Nope… that’s the lesson for me today!

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#10

P&D signals on Telegram are a total scam. Think about how it must operate and you’ll realize there’s no real way you can be truly successful in these groups even with a bot trained to take advantage.

Here’s why:

The ring leader picks the coin and what he picks is seemingly random, but he’s picking to coincide with news, hype, FOMO, FUD, etc… When he picks, he doesn’t just tell everyone. He first buys into the coin and then sets up several sell orders at whatever levels he feels he can push it. Let’s say +20%. He then writes up something plausible with fake targets that go well beyond his 20% sell order. So he’s set to make a profit, like setting a mouse trap and baiting it.

The ring leader has perhaps 5 to 10 trusted lieutenants that he relays what coin is coming and the time of the pump. These are the folks that are doing the active recruitment to get about 100 or more followers each. These guys are running the the “paid channels” you might buy into on top of a huge number of “free signal” channels meant to snag folks into signing up for the paid channels. The lieutenants, like the ring leader buy in and set their own sell orders and have plenty of time to do it as well since they’re the inner most circle.

I’ve never joined the paid channels so I don’t know what goes on inside those, but just judging by all the cross-promotions I saw in telegram groups, I’d say all the people in the paid channels are taught how to run their own telegram recruiting efforts to bring people to the paid channel. Many of them do. Many of them themselves try to act as they’re ring-leaders picking the coin and repeat the pattern.

Gives you a whole 'nuther perspective on “multi-level marketing” doesn’t it?

Also, don’t go falling for the latest FAD: Pump and HODL groups…“the legit” or “feel good” groups. That’s just even more praying on those who want to “participate” but don’t like the “dump” part. The followers there think they’re signing on to buy coins worth holding, but the dirty little secret is that these signal groups are getting the SAME calls as the other signal groups. Simply don’t fall for any of this feel good garbage.

So bottom line, it’s Russian dolls and you don’t have a clue how many rings away from core you are. But one thing is for sure, the bigger the outer Russian doll, the bigger the price action.

Now here comes the worst part. At first, most people did all this manually. Before, there wasn’t all that much automation amongst the participants in these P&D groups, so the spikes and eventual falls on price action was longer-lived. Now it’s all automated with bots on telegram AND bots on the exchanges. Not to mention, several P&D are run on the same coin as others are watching the action and then repeating the process in a more sinister way. These guys are clever. They see a pump happen on some coin and retroactively make it their call by announcing the same coin to their followers, but change the buy-in levels and targets. To make matters worse, they report the aftermath results as though they made the calls from before the very first pump to convince you to join their paid signals group. Check this chart out. Four P&D on the same coin in 24 hours:

BOTTOM LINE: Forget P&D groups and signal groups on Telegram. It’s one big bag of fat lies on top of more big fat lies designed to make the organizers rich and ruthlessly take your satoshis in the process.

On the other hand…if you develop your charting and TA skills to find trading opportunities, then you can use P&D signals the way I do: as another data point in your decision making on whether to invest in a coin. That is, see what’s being pumped and correlate back to news, hype, etc. against the coin in the P&D cross-hairs to decide whether current trends you’re witnesses is a P&D action underway, or if it’s a true, authentic breakout worth. More than once, I stopped myself entering into a position on some coin because I realized it was a P&D and not a true breakout from a Bull Flag or Pennant or Wedge.

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#11

I think it’s in the B90x that Peter talks about waiting for confirmation. In other words, don’t jump in too soon. You may not get the lowest price but you want to see it come back a bit so you don’t get caught on the dump. More Data!

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#12

Yep, and that’s exactly what i DIDN’T do. So it’s another good lesson to learn.

Darcy C

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#13

Example of schemes to be very cautious of. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK


Hi DCardinal,

Sorry to hear that you have had a bad experience with using a Crypto Signal Service.

As some have pointed out in this thread, there are 2 types of “Signal Groups”. One being a legitimate service whereby the signals are based on Fundamentals, News & Technical Analysis. And the second are the bad apples in the Cryptospace, known as “Pump & Dump” Groups. Most often these “Pump & Dump” groups mask themselves as a signal service promising unsuspecting victims great gains in a short period of time.We certainly do NOT condone Pump & Dump groups and we advice everyone to steer clear of them as only the owners of the group tend to make profit. Everyone else is left as a bagholder.

As we run a Signal Service ourselves, we always always advocate the importance of learning Technical analysis and gaining knowledge in the Cryptoworld. One should never follow signals blindly and always should do your own homework and due diligence in any coin you are investing in. A Signal service should act as assistance and confluence instead of total reliance.

When choosing a Signal service, follow those that provide clear reasons for their picks. Be it Fundamentals or Technical analysis to back. They should also come with Entry, Stop-Loss, and Targets to take profit. Also, one should always exercise discipline and having a good strategy when using a Signal Service. More often than not, people complain they’re not making profits and losing capital using a signal service due to greed. Having stop-losses in place and being more conservative to take profit at lower target levels would greatly reduce your exposure to risk.

To conclude, many traders in this space are looking to “Moonshot” or get rich quick with trading. We feel that it is the wrong mindset and our mandate at SniperTrade Signals is to build capital consistently and conservatively. We believe in protecting capital, thus our Signals are generally safer with more conservative targets. On days where the market is volatile, we do not force any trades and no signals are given. As our channel is free at the moment, we invite anyone to come and check out the content to see for yourself if it is useful.

Our Statistics so far (22 Feb- 02 May 2018)
Total Profit/Loss:829%
Total Signals: 41
Win Signals: 30
Loss Signals: 6
Breakeven:1
Open Signals: 4
Win Rate: 83.33%

Best Regards,
SniperTrade Team

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#14

I like that a Signals Tgroup just posted to this thread. No offense @SniperTradeSignals but your shill is real. Which doesn’t mean your logic isn’t valid just biased.

@DCardinal just want to applaud your attitude and transparency. This is a great thread.
@mwlang your write up was great and really generous.

It seems to me that money would be better spent on a group organized around learning, observation, and analysis. Pooling resources to pay for access to certain news services, analytic firms and research data like Fundstrat for instance, and tools/platforms/bots that make life easier. TheBitcoin.Pub <–is a good place to start…they have a Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/pub <–the easiest money I’ve ever spent

It would be cool to go next level and collab on some deeper trading gnawledge and resource and maybe have some organized collective buying power when it comes to accessing pay to play services, tools, newsletters, etc. informal of course :wink: Just my two cents.

This a great thread! Ha but before all that maybe I should actually buy some Bitcoin?? (looks up)

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#15

Avi Gilbert who does a lot of articles and commentary on Seeking Alpha on Metals and regular markets has a site elliottwavetrader.net where he opened a cryptocurrency trading room with free 2 week membership led by Ryan Wilday whose work you can see on Medium and Twitter. There are weekly webinars , an education section for noobs with videos on trading, trading time frimes, recommended books etc. A small cap and large portofiolo with trades as well. They do presentations at the Traders Expo in NY and stuff like that so it is NOT just a crypto P&D group. I wouldnt trust slack channels and the like while you are on your way to learning.

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#16

I have a friend who plays the vix and constantly forwards me his stuff.

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#17

Not sure rules about links , I just typed in website name and it automatically made like a link. Just a FYI :blush:

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#18

I completely agree. People who blindly following P&D groups are shooting themselves in the foot :joy:

It is worth noting though that there ARE more than just P&D groups on telegram and discord, some are communities with the intent to teach and learn. Not all of these communities are great, but I’ve definitely found some that I’ve been a part of for some time now. The biggest part of these communities is that you can bounce ideas around and get pointers to interesting movements in the market! I like CryptoVince, Jeekis & CMD for the community aspect but I also use Coin and Crypto for signals on interesting coins (I found C&C from their blog on medium, they’ve been decently accurate so far).

Basically, I’ll either do my own TA or see something in C&C that I’ll verify with my own TA then i’ll take that and share my ideas in one of those communities to get people’s thoughts. I’ve found that’s helped a lot and hopefully it helps someone here too!

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