Pantera Capital Market overview


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I am a huge fan of Pantera Capital and if you aren’t already following their monthly news letters you should be. They are very open about their thoughts on the market and investing strategy and their performance is undeniable. Here is their Blockchain newsletter from June.

Highlights:

Pantera portfolio companies have led the wave of acquisitions occurring this year in the blockchain space. Eight of our companies have exited or paid significant dividends. Our first two venture funds have realized $100 million on investments of $13.6 million.

The majority of invested capital is still at work
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Pantera is the largest U.S. investor in ICON (up 2,493% since our investment).

We are the largest investor in StarkWare, Giftos, Bloom, FunFair, and Kik/Kin. Pantera is also believed to have been the largest investor in:

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At Consensus there was a lot of talk about — and from — Bitcoin Maximalists.

This thought kept occurring to me:

The line “I’m a Bitcoin maximalist.”

Isn’t that the same as saying in the 1990’s “I’m a Yahoo! Maximalist”?

Yahoo! was a great company, but there was more than one disruptive idea in the Internet 1.0 wave. There could be more than one disruptive blockchain.

Bitcoin is “probably rat poison,” said to CNBC’s Becky Quick, May 2018

My thoughts, in no particular order:

Great line…catchy, pithy…he’s a true salesman.
Warren Buffett is obviously an incredibly successful value investor.
But even the best investors don’t bat 1000.
He might be just plain wrong — and when trades are 50-to-1 the cost of missing it is large. He’s been slagging off bitcoin since $200 /BTC.

“It’s [Bitcoin] a mirage, basically. It’s a method of transmitting money…The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke in my view”, March 2014

However, he might be talking his book. I love this tweet:

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Just sayin’ — If I were long 74 BILLION-dollars-worth of payments oligopolists, I’d be worried about bitcoin too.

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To keep things in perspective: Buffett avoided the dot coms, but he also missed Amazon, Facebook, Google, Netflix, et al.

The three technology stocks he’s bought have all been well after they were successful, which meant missing the vast majority of the trade. For example, Buffett missed buying Apple below 50 cents a share and finally bought it thirty-six YEARS after its IPO.

Dan: In our view, all cryptocurrencies are very cheap right now; they’re down 65% from their highs. At the highs, everybody wanted to get invested.

Melissa: At the highs were they too expensive?

Dan: Obviously in hindsight. Right now, they’re down about 65%. Much cheaper to buy now and participate in the rally as it goes. There is a good technical indicator that we look at. When bitcoin breaks through its 200-day moving average, if you buy that day, and sell a year later, you make an average of 239%. Obviously that’s a very simple strategy.

Melissa: So let’s go through that again. Once Bitcoin breaks its 200-day moving average you buy and then one year later-

Dan: Sell it one year later. It’s happened about five times in the past six years. Once it hits that, if you just buy it and sell without even thinking a year later, you have made 239%. That’s the essence of this trade, it rarely ever gets cheap to its long term average. So today is a good day to be buying.

Enjoy and buy BTC