Psychology of the 1000x

Hi all,

Thought I’d cook up a thread where we can all share our thoughts, opinions & general discourse around “finding” the next 1000x. Let’s keep it running and evolving as we continue through the next ultimate bull-run cycle.

Specifically, I think it would be constructive to discuss how these opportunities laid dormant in the past, seemingly untouched and completely ignored by the masses until their ultimate repricing events, and also how best to identify and capitalize on the next candidates.

I’ll kick it off with two popular examples of the 1000x from the last bull-run of 2017 : XVG & XRB

Similarities between these bad-boys (just OTOH):

  • Both have ‘X’ in the ticker
  • Both were perceived as ‘Shite’ prior to evolving into a perception of ‘Relative Value/Legitimate tech’
  • Both were in the dumpster as far as valuations were concerned - both in Per-Unit Amounts (USD/Sat) as well as overall valuations (close-floor before runs at ~$0.000021 USD/$300k Cap & ~$0.009 USD/$500k Cap respectively)
  • Both underwent prominent marketing campaigns, and/or had out-spoken proponents; Verge had McAffee and XRB turned into ‘Nano’, the “cool” next-gen bitcoin narrative for payments

Tale of the Tape:
tape___

Crowd Behavior & Social Influence:

  • Crowd behavior (aka ‘Mob mentality’), or Group Think is also very strong in crypto as an investment vehicle; Social Influence is a preferred drug of many with a “following” (aka perceived respect), which many times is used in the crypto-sphere to subliminally coerce, or somehow “certify” that an investment is worthy.
  • As an example, doing a “Coin of the Week” on a highly public platform with intent to elicit social proofing, or a popular social media persona explicitly shilling a project as having merit would have this effect. To a degree, 90% of projects with a public list of Advisor’s backing the project have this effect, as the investor feels (rightly justified or not) that the Advisoree would be reluctant in most cases to risk their reputation on a less-than-subpar project
    *See : Social Influence leading to Conformity, and ultimately to Wide-Scale Internalization:

The Psychology of ‘Cool’ (All 1000x’s had/have it):
A somewhat cheesy article behind the science of what it means to be ‘Perceived as Cool’, in human-terms: If we liken the 1000x crypto as a person, that person would have some of the following traits:

  • "Less" (doesn’t have to try to -be- cool) -> Confidence in knowing its market value
  • Confidence (goes back to social certification, group/crowd behavior - or if everyone else thinks its cool / respected folks are on board, it must be good)
  • Savvy / Rule Breaker (Likening to the cryptoverse : something with an ‘X’ in the ticker, something highly disruptive, NEW, fast, revolutionary, new paradigm, privacy coin)
  • On-Point Attitude & Demeanor (Is the P.R. face smooth? If the marketing team talented and spreads awareness professionally and effectively? Does the CEO/Head ‘Try too hard’ - net negative || Or do they exude confidence & charisma akin to a Gilbert Verdian / Da Hongfei)
    https://time.com/82905/how-to-be-cool-5-research-backed-tips/

Misc:

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i remember back in the day you used to post stuff like this about ICON, those were the days

I gotta follow you on yen!!! to stay updated on the latest game theory and Killer new coinz! amazing stuff!

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Funny how market shifts bring out real babies… like literal babies. lul

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Maybe ‘Z’ can be the new ‘X’? :crazy_face:

NYZO, ZEL

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All just a lottery. Just pick a bunch of good fundamental low caps and you’ll likely get one that explodes :slight_smile:

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Adding value! Thank you.

If you don’t mind me asking which micro cap potential 1000x have you got money in at the moment?

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Out of my portfolio, I think something like a Nyzo or maybe a BITC probably could do it. However, It’s a bit like posing the question to a holder of Raiblocks back in April of 2017 : “Do you feel raiblocks will 1000x your money within the next year?” - It seems silly at the time to even ask, the immediate assumption is of course a resounding NO, and even the most bullish investor wouldn’t entertain the question.That’s how these things happen though.

At the moment, I’m still struggling to resolve folks going all in on QNT only recently (after just pulling a ~50x in USD terms), where the fundamentals have not changed at all - It is still the same project as it was at 2 million fundamentally. I guess that is the key after all - can you project your bias into the future, see past the current valuation to perceive what the potential could be without allowing current pricing to affect your bias. Another way of putting it is: Was a project like Verge ever supposed to be a multi-billion $ project - probably not. Did it become one? Yes.

So really, ask the question(s):

Could ___ project, which is currently Sub-Million -to- 1/2-Million, become repriced at some point in the future, during a euphoric bull-run.

Do you see ____ being bought up, people going “all in” on it, regardless if it has just pulled a 40-50x. (This is what you are seeing seemingly every day with Quant, and something that I’m still struggling to come to terms with - but it is true : For many, Quant, even though the fundamentals have -not- changed, in investor’s eyes, the project may as well be a completely different one, mostly because of the swap from a 2m valuation to an 80m+ valuation [a repricing event]. Folks are now many times more bullish on the project, putting every dollar they have into it now than when it was at 2m (as can be seen across social influencers, et all);

I guess this touches back on the notion of people perceiving “expensive” as “quality” || Or basically, if a project is expensive, it must be solid, and if not, it must be a shitcoin. Nothing could be further from the truth however. Some of the most “expensive” projects are nothing more than antiquated tech, fitting a barely-there use case, dressed in fancy advisors, and wearing trendy marketing clothes.

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FA is only one, at times very small, element of all of this.

Sure, QNT hasn’t fundamentally changed. An emphasis on FA assumes, though, that people who are investing now knew about the fundamentals when QNT was only $2m MC but forewent investing (but eventually doing so only after there was mass confirmation that presented itself in terms of price). This is probably not the case.

I would suspect that the average investor (“investor”…average investor is probably more akin to speculator) who is investing heavily after 50x in USD is not scouring through low market cap coins on lower volume exchanges, reading the white papers, making an informed early-mover decision, and so on. So, it’s not necessarily that investors are now more bullish–it’s likely that they are only now seeing the name pop up at the top of IDEX, on their Twitter feeds, etc.

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Another toughie in catching the next 1000x is actually holding on. Not only do you (emotionally), but would you want to even if you could stomach it?

I’ll use QNT but obviously this can apply generically: If you were buying QNT at $2m, and it goes 50x, do you hold on for the next 20x? Do you take profits and move on? A question to which I’ve not found a simple answer. Perhaps you even move on and then put subsequently compounded profits back into QNT as it proves further, and further to be a blue chip rather than a fad that flames out. But, if you make 50x, assuming a decent sized initial investment, it’s not always easy to find un-pumped tokens that have the liquidity to accommodate what are surely substantial profits. You would likely need to find a good handful to spread those profits between.

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An emphasis on FA assumes, though, that people who are investing now knew about the fundamentals when QNT was only $2m MC but forewent investing (but eventually doing so only after there was mass confirmation that presented itself in terms of price)

I guess this was what I was really getting at - Yes there will always be latecomers, but I see many of the same folks, the people who are deeply entrenched in the space, the same people who knew the FA, it was staring them straight in the eyes, yet they did not invest. I guess this is the same phenomenon with BTC to an extent. You can tell someone blindly up and down the value in BTC, and they can even go so far as to respect you greatly, but they will not entertain investment until the social confirmation of physical price appreciation manifests itself on the exchange. You want to say: “Where were you when BTC was 3k?” If we can train our minds to see past the effect price confirmation has on our biases, we are more ‘open’ to the possibilities of investing heavily in BTC at $3k, to buying Quant at $0.16, to finding the next Nanos and Verges, and putting in at least a sizaeble enough position.

To your other point: Of course, the average investor is not scouring lower volume exchanges, etc. But they are (to the point mentioned above) seeing the confirmation of peers + price appreciation working on their bias (even if on a sub-conscious level).

If you were buying QNT at $2m, and it goes 50x, do you hold on for the next 20x?

This is a really valid point. The truth is, if you get a 50x, you only need another 20x in another coin to have the same effect. This is very simple to understand in practice: 50x * 20x = 1000x
But again, for many, our monkey brains like big solid numbers, we are attracted to the 1000x straight away, almost as if it somehow carries more weight than the 50x * 20x.
Learning to accept that smaller wins along the way take you to the ultimate same spot is an ego check for many, and a lesson in taking profits and minimizing risks;

Knowing this, if you can attain the correct frame of mind in spotting the ‘1000x’ before the masses, you will still benefit from the expedited increase in repricing vs. the general market.

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Another thing that is interesting that hasn’t been brought up are the notions of Vaporwear, Price Discovery, and inherent Speculation.

It can be argued that, at least in terms of investment vehicles like alt coins, you either need :

(1) True FA, backed by real tangible use-case, with a solid long-term plan for success and profit making potential / coin utility / and-or ability to generate demand for the token itself in line with the tokenomics. Something like : entities must require purchase of the token via treasury in order to use services which are needed, applying long-term demand on token supply
Or something like in the case of BNB, requiring BNB in order to take advantage of IEO, or trading fees.

-Or-

(2) Some combination of: Vaporwear, Price Discovery, and inherent Speculation.

Vaporwear: Verge was largely pure vaporwear, there was no real, tangible product. Was verge making money? Did they have a solid viable 10 year plan? An exit strategy? No on all accounts.
Vaporwear is really about making it near impossible to appripriately ‘price’ the asset. It becomes very difficult to price a comparable product already on the market vs. something vague.
What did they have? Marketing & Community
(http://thecompletecoinguide.com/verge-success/)

Marketing + Community, + Price Discovery (that being, not a lot of past history in terms of what price SHOULD have traded at above certain levels, leading to profit taking).

Add the 3 points above in addition to a mass speculative environment (ala late 2017), and you have the perfect storm to fuel and power the 1000x.

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How to find " 1000x $gems " before ‘CT gurus’

  1. Open TradeOgre & STEX
  2. Sort by vol., Exclude pg. 1 on TO, & remove top 20 on STEX (exclude < .004btc vol/d)
  3. Remove > 8-10m caps
  4. Research remaining for potential (most will die/delist)

** Can also use on IDEX, Kucoin, etc.

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Anyone else loading up on RSR for that potential 100x? With that in mind, but position size will not be huge, but enough to make a noticeable increase in a portfolio.

Micro caps definitely seems the best place to discover the 100-1000x sort of gains, liquidity is a problem but if a major exchange lists then it shouldn’t be a problem. Something I’m seriously considering right now.

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I think you can still search for x1000s for much higher than 10m. I wouldn’t be too suprised to see coins go from 20million to 20 billion, or 30million to 30 billion especially if crypto’s going to reach a multi trillion dollar market cap

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Oh you will see that, eventually. The key is the amt. of time required to achieve it.

If you are playing the X’s game (which I am exclusively), you only care about the rate of time required to achieve a set number of X’s, the ultimate market caps are largely irrelevant to me… it just so happens that the lower the cap the quicker the multiple (as a function of the maths). If your net worth is already over 5m, you might be fine just to stick to BTC and maybe a few very high caps (lower risk, less hassle, higher liquidity, decent SOV).

Also Key to keep top of mind: You probably do not want to allocate to exclusively ‘1000x gems’ (unless you are only gambling a few hundred/thousand $). These are high R/R plays… if you are smart, you would allocate a significant portion to BTC, have maybe a portion in a mid cap, and then some lower caps, and depending on your strategy/risk tolerance/comfort level, maybe a few 1000x micro caps | 1000x in this sense being the multiple within the current higher level market cycle (2019-2021ish), similar to the verge and nano examples above. The risk of delist is very real with these, resulting in complete loss of capital, the team/idea/tech could disband, or the market could become illiquid to the point of near total-loss.

The majority of my portfolio is in 5-15m names, but I’d be lieing if I said I didn’t hold quite a few sub 5m plays as well, going as low as even a <100k market cap for one. This is how you make the massive multipliers, by being early and spotting the opportunity before the crowd.

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Care to share some low/micro caps you’re interested in?

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Sure,

Here are a few mid-term hold coins I have added recently

Disclaimer: This is not a shill / larp, please do not go run out & buy these coins, etc.

#1) NYZO - Just released plans for the dev fund, which was a big uncertainty hanging over its head. This is a very promising project with unique consensus mechanism.

#2) BMH - Blockmesh netted (pun) Charlie Shrem as advisor < $500k/cap

#3) XTC - $1m cap, active devs, low sat, ticker is drug, euphoria play

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Forgot one:

#4) AKA - Lead creator ‘Detroit’ surfaced again in discord, private commits to github, kinda a long shot.

Also, shout out goes to @Nathan_D for bringing Blockmesh to my attention.

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Blockmesh (BMH) is the highest risk to reward that I’ve seen thus far, so I figured I’d just follow up with a little extra info for anyone who is curious. It’s an absolute gem.

This is a clever protocol that allows cell phones to communicate without cell service or wifi. This means free texting, calling, and payments, without needing to be online. There are obvious benefits to this, but the main use case is places like Africa, where they have cell phones, but very limited banking, and poor cellular connectivity (means you can transact or communicate even in remote areas).

The protocol, which is already patented, uses Bluetooth to create a “mesh” network, where each device assists in creating additional range. Additionally there are special “node” like devices that you can run, that boost the mesh and allow signals to go 15km to fill in the gaps where the mesh is weak. Anyone running these devices is incentivized through “mining” rewards, which is the token’s only form of inflation.

The team already has the base protocol finished, with a working app in the Google PlayStore. They’re now expanding on the mesh technology towards IoT use cases.

Few key points:

  • They already have the largest retail network across Africa
  • The son of the President of South Africa is on the advisory board (so expect a lot of support there)
  • Charlie Shrem just joined the team
  • New exchange listing next month
  • Patented tech
  • Nice clean website: https://blockmesh.io/
  • Active ‘airdrop’ reward of 30% for whatever BMH you maintain in your wallet for 6 months

The token distribution was finally updated on websites like CMC, which subsequently raised the circulating supply and market cap. They never reached the ICO hardcap, so a percentage of tokens were burned, meaning that the total supply is less than is listed. Also, 50% of the tokens are locked away for “mining” which means that they won’t be unlocked for well over a decade.

Currently sitting at an absurd market cap of only $600k, so the potential here is ridiculous. Available on IDEX and HitBTC.

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Here are some other good ones I’ve found recently:

  • Amoveo - smart contracts ontop of payment channels. Lead dev was the lead dev of Augur and Aeternity.
  • Metronome - Coin with no actual blockchain, different to wrapped coins.
  • Bismuth - Good amount of features for such a small cap
  • Xinfin - Solid fundamentals but an extremely low market cap
  • LIT - SAP partnership
  • Harmony - scalable ETH that has released it’s mainnet.
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