Psychology of the 1000x

As far as the macro outlook on the overall market, I’d love to invite others in the discussion on this thread. Leaving it up to the thread

As far as the first point: If you want to be in on the next pump, buy ZEL now, and continue buying it below 400sats

Current Price: 360-380sats

//I don’t know what I’m doing, not advice, etc

Macro is BTC

Supply decreasing (ordered decreasing importance)

Exponentially decreasing block rewards (driving 4 year cycle)

Fixed supply forces > 7 Billion people to own < 0.03 BTC each

Demand increasing (ordered decreasing importance)

HODL waves https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

$300Bn crypto – if anything moves from FOREX derivatives equities bonds commodities

Closer to having crypto products & services with utility (DeFi in particular)

32 million BTC wallets (we’re in early adopters phase)

Next generation of buyers (i.e. generation = 4 years, increasingly tech orientated)

Never-ending money printing by central banks

Starbucks coffees via bakkt (if paying and backed with BTC, free marketing)

Economic uncertainty / shift focus to commodities


If you look at Bitcoin history particularly with reference to halving dates (log scale and colour for time to halving) - then contrast this with the older alt coins (ripple, stellar in particular) you can see clear patterns. This cycle is different this far - no mini alt szn unlike last time.

If alts moon it will be most likely in 2021 - BTC dominance is showing a lot of resilience at the moment and alts have little in the way of utility yet to drive usage/demand meanwhile supply is on the up for most of them.

6 figure peak BTC is my bet - It is a balance between working out the new crowds perception of worth for BTC and the old crowd and which ones get attracted first to buy and sell respectively.

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Have anyone looked into SNX and why it did a x300?

I don’t remember it generating that much hype at all

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I can’t stop buying nyzo

i need help

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How are you thinking about long term hold strategy on these? That is, if NYZO or ZEL (or others) could reach the 1b range, a 333x from a ~3m current cap, that’s a wide range of return potential (10x vs 333x)—where in this range will you think about liquidating?

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I would play it by ear. I don’t expect those names to 1000x over night. The best thing you can do is study past charts like the raiblocks chart to get an idea of the hype cycle in low cap names. You will see a long channel form over years, and then eventually nearer to the last 6mnths-1yr, a massive sustained repricing event.

Right now in nyzos case, we just bumped off the bottom of the channel at 1000sats, now at 3000sats. If we see a 5-10x off the bottom of the channel in a short time period (5-10ksats), you should scale some out, to re-buy back lower. All depends on btc as well. Take profit at 3-5x or 5-10x’s, then buy-back in lower in another project for an additional 5-10x (or in the case of nyzo & zel, I am long term bullish, I would wait for pull-back and re-buy lower same amounts, and use the proceeds left over to accumulate other names).

Taking profits is an art, and the key to it is not to expect a 100-1000x straight away, getting blinded by greed.

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Another interesting project is $NEM. No hype what so ever. No one even knew what it did for the longest time, yet it did a x15,000.

It just looked corporate and professional and that’s it.

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@K_Godel Interesting on what you posted earlier, and it pays dividends in the long run to keep that perspective. Trying to look up NYZO, but can’t find it on CMC. Any particular reasons why that is?

You feeling confident we’ll break $9100? I’m not trusting this slight price action at all at the minute, i will look to buy into strength when the market has played all it’s hand…

Buying into strength, you can easily still make 2,3 or even 5x when the market is in full bull flow. For now though, i am still on the side of caution…

When playing in the low cap, high return potential coins, does this have the opportunity to very quickly hit a wall?

That is, let’s say you (for purpose of example) have $15k of NYZO. It 10x’s. It’s now just a $20m mcap. You now have $150k.

You sell some to wait for pull back, and let’s say NYZO does retrace—given the liquidity, wouldn’t it be very hard to re-enter with that new, much larger sum of money?

Or, let’s say you want to use just some to re-enter, but the remaining to accumulate other coins. That would work at first, but what about after compounding again, or again and again? If the returns across NYZO and the new coins go 10x again. Amazing! You’re a millionaire.

But if you want to stay in the market, now what do you do? Are you upgrading and now playing in the area of $20-50m mcap? Are you holding a larger portion of portfolio in large caps (with modest returns) but simply taking larger positions in the small caps than previously possible? It would seem impossible to compound $1m across the coins we’ve been discussing, which sometimes seem to have like $3k of liquidity a day.

Hope the question/concern makes sense.

Yes you got it. Eventually you will have to play mostly mid-caps for multiples (like a Tezos), as investing over $100k in a coin like nyzo in the 3m cap range is not feasible for distribution (nor allocation for that matter) when the time comes.

If your portfolio is currently over 3-5m, you req. a greater % of your portfolio allocated in mid-caps vs low, but you can very easily start a ~100k-~1m portfolio spread over lower caps, grow it into the 1-3m range, and take profits into a variety of additional low caps for the next 4 year cycle (at which point you are looking to re-distribute a few times into baskets of multiple low caps, and of course some mid caps for added liquidity).

I would say $50k into nyzo is still feasible at this point for redistribution. If it 50xs, that is 2.5m to re-allocate at a mid-cap range (now a 150m cap). Totally doable over a week or two, I would try to accumulate my bag at a take-profit level, and any excess look for a new bag, or if I think the project is going to the 1b range, potentially slightly increase allocation amount if the dip is severe enough and I am certain in the project (nyzo, qnt, zel, etc)

People have this misconception that it is always all-or-nothing. You are not going to invest 100% of your holdings in one project, and go from 3m cap to 1000x it to 3b in one go, that’s not feasible; You’ll likely invest in a project that sees that sort of return over the long term, but you’ll take profits at the first 10x, the next 2x (now a 20x on initial bag), see another 5x (100x cumulative), and then if you want the final 10x you could scale out on the last move over weeks with a very large bag per % of total market cap. $50k into nyzo literally means you own 3-5% of total circ. supply, something to keep in mind when the time comes to take profit.

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interesting write up of the Zenon scam

Amazes me that two people can read the same thing and draw such drastically different conclusions.

You trading these huge swings? So little liquidity, but some good potential.

staking rewards are 0.3% a day without lifting a finger - does that count?

NoM

It’s time to start getting prepared to fill shitcoin bags based on the bearishness of bitcoin dominance. I think the market is at extreme fear levels for alts. 2019 bitcoin rally crushed everyone holding alts vs BTC. I expect something opposite this time. One thing that will provide this market continuation liquidity is people selling alts after holding 2+ years for a 90%+ drawdown and then watch their alt outperform BTC and jump back in to get their favorite shitcoin bags back.

They who hold the most BTC hold the power to create disbelief rallies. :bnb:

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Not sure I’m equally optimistic, but I do agree with your theory. CHR and MITx are looking juice af right now. Accumulating but mainly waiting on the trend reversal. When the trend does change, it’s not going to take a lot of BTC to send some of these skyward.

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I have been buying CHR too. Also been back into CHX which looks to be breaking out right now, I have bids starting from $0.01600 and looking for continuation. Some :whale2: has a $10K buy wall at $0.01750 on bitmax, not sure if its real or not. I might test the fucker out on a market sell if enough higher bids clear out.

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Shit, I was hoping to catch the double bottom on that one. Good luck brother!

Oh, I should also note that BMH is dead af. They ran out of funding, lost their African retail deal, severed ties with the son of the South African president, and the Shrem hype went nowhere. I was lucky to sell the recent pump and Get out at break even. Definitely avoid it, as it’s now a supreme shitcoin.

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xla will pull an etn
nyzo will pull an xrb

/thread

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This chart is telling me to get in alts and stay in alts until Tone Vays abandons bitcoin maximalism.

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Fuck yes. That’s the best chart I’ve seen since 2017. Pleaseeee play out as intended. :pray::joy:

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