Psychology of the 1000x

Actually, this might be a good time to revisit our favorite picks. Not for 1000x, but on a shorter time frame for a quick 3-5x.

What are your top 3 likely candidates? I’ll have to think this over, but so far I’ve started to stack MITx. Also looking to get into CHR once it drops a bit more (just pumped and fully retraced, so I’m expecting it to go another 25-50% lower).

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I guess my picks for an easy 3-5x are similar to my 1000x picks… On the CHR note, looks like it may be putting in an accumulation bottom, will have to see how the next 2-3 months pan out (ala what DAG did on kucoin)

  • for the degen: XLA and XNOS (.0003b cap each)
  • for the optimist: PASCAL (still needs rebrand, but cool tech, would wait for lower lvls)
  • for the consummate professional: VIDT* & MITX
  • for the FA enthusiast: ZEL & CHR (2.8m & 2m respectively)
  • for the low-cap 1000x+ speculator: MCM & BITC
  • for the future 2021 “I bought raiblocks before it 3800x’ed” internet troll: NYZO

Disqualifiers: Anything over a ~3m cap

Wildcards: ZANO (exchange privacy compliance risk)

*VIDT looks like it may be primed

I think the end portion of this year, going into 2021 (when BTC re-tests old ATH) is when many of these projects find a new floor around 20-30m (which was the level of ‘perceived value/bargain’ during 2017/2018 for low-cap alt speculation generally), this level will then look cheap for new comers, which base future ROI potential on how many x’es it will take their 20m cap coin to reach a 1b cap: Or, 20m * 50x = 1b. Everyone will be looking for viable un-pumped projects for the magical 50x.

That is an easy 10x+ minimum from current levels for legit projects with low inflation.

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Jesus christ. I waited to buy into MITx for about 8 months, and decided today was the day since it had found a solid floor. Bought $1k worth, and left the house. Checked my phone 90 mins later, and BTC pumped, and in the process MITx tanked over 50%. Luck can be downright fucking cruel sometimes. lol

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Whats your opinion about OCEAN protocol?

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Thanks Nathan, I’ll have to check it out as well

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Don’t know enough about it :man_shrugging:


This is a good threat

In short, it’s a data focused crypto project.

I am very bullish on it.

I am from The Netherlands and they have a partnership with Unilver (150B company) and they are working together with Delft university. And thats just two of many partnerships.

Marketcap is 10m right now, so maybe little bit too much for you (I see most of your coins around -3m marketcap)

Ocean team will give more information about staking, in Q1 2020

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The psychology of order books, and dynamics of scarcity in action:

Thought I would share some thoughts on how I think through pump events (using the recent one as a live example), both before deciding to accumulate, during the pump, and thinking about when to take some profits off the table.

Case study: ZNN

  1. The withdrawal function on STEX is disabled
  2. There is ~4k of ZNN left on-order between current price and about a 2x (current price 55/60ksats -> 100ksats) (for ref: accumulation bottom was 7k-14ksats)
  3. There are only ~6k ZNN left total on the books for sale.
  4. Large portion of supply is ‘locked’ off market generating a return for holders (further reducing float)
  5. There are fundamental events inbound, which gives holders a ‘reason’ to hold, and sellers a ‘narrative’ to buy

This is the sort of scarcity factor that QNT had on IDEX during its enormous pumping days.

QNT has/had it, ZEL had it (notable miner inflation, halving to occur mid-2020) DAG has it, ZNN has it

“That’s great! So what?”

  1. If you haven’t already bought, then just sit out.
  2. If you did accumulate, the pump will probably last longer than you think
  3. Volume & liquidity is ultra-low due to limited exchanges, which is a problem for both buyers & sellers (whales & potential buyers continue to push the price via small buys || sellers will suffer enormous slippage on market sells, and will dump the market with anything greater than $10k)
  4. You can either:
    • Wait for a new exchange listing to sell (Run risk of missing interim-top if you wait)
    • Wait for the WP release (Run the risk of sell-the-news event)
    • Dump the market if you are a holder to take profit (take the discounted profit & run)
    • Incrementally take profit @ key defined levels, using total market cap of recent low-supply token pumps as a baseline metric: (e.g. DAG pumped from 2m bottom to 20m interim-top || ZNN has a larger amount of tokens locked as well as a higher floor around 3-4m, possible the interim-top in a similar mini hype cycle could take it as high as 30-40m before correcting)

People paid 0.001136 btc 6 months ago a 2x from here - I see zero resistance to there while staking is so lucrative and supply still has months till it reaches max

This (could-be-potential) roadmap will maintain interest for months to come
(1) bluesky zapp
(2) upgrading Znn from sidechain to btc main chain status
(3) whitepaper (academically reviewed)
(4) launch of network of momentum which overcomes existing DLT & DAGs

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@K_Godel

Ive missed the boat on this, not getting in at these levels… to much risk for me to be honest.

Your comments the other day about the worst is probably behind us, I do agree with. In terms of when the next cycle is going to begin, I don’t think the halving will be it.

Although I feel we might get some kind of a lag, once the halving has happened.

I could be wrong, but I just don’t see a certain event taking hold of this market and catapulting us into a mania phase. When/if it happens, it’ll when everyone is off guard and least expects it.

What are your thoughts?

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As far as the macro outlook on the overall market, I’d love to invite others in the discussion on this thread. Leaving it up to the thread

As far as the first point: If you want to be in on the next pump, buy ZEL now, and continue buying it below 400sats

Current Price: 360-380sats

//I don’t know what I’m doing, not advice, etc

Macro is BTC

Supply decreasing (ordered decreasing importance)

Exponentially decreasing block rewards (driving 4 year cycle)

Fixed supply forces > 7 Billion people to own < 0.03 BTC each

Demand increasing (ordered decreasing importance)

HODL waves https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

$300Bn crypto – if anything moves from FOREX derivatives equities bonds commodities

Closer to having crypto products & services with utility (DeFi in particular)

32 million BTC wallets (we’re in early adopters phase)

Next generation of buyers (i.e. generation = 4 years, increasingly tech orientated)

Never-ending money printing by central banks

Starbucks coffees via bakkt (if paying and backed with BTC, free marketing)

Economic uncertainty / shift focus to commodities


If you look at Bitcoin history particularly with reference to halving dates (log scale and colour for time to halving) - then contrast this with the older alt coins (ripple, stellar in particular) you can see clear patterns. This cycle is different this far - no mini alt szn unlike last time.

If alts moon it will be most likely in 2021 - BTC dominance is showing a lot of resilience at the moment and alts have little in the way of utility yet to drive usage/demand meanwhile supply is on the up for most of them.

6 figure peak BTC is my bet - It is a balance between working out the new crowds perception of worth for BTC and the old crowd and which ones get attracted first to buy and sell respectively.

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Have anyone looked into SNX and why it did a x300?

I don’t remember it generating that much hype at all

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I can’t stop buying nyzo

i need help

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How are you thinking about long term hold strategy on these? That is, if NYZO or ZEL (or others) could reach the 1b range, a 333x from a ~3m current cap, that’s a wide range of return potential (10x vs 333x)—where in this range will you think about liquidating?

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I would play it by ear. I don’t expect those names to 1000x over night. The best thing you can do is study past charts like the raiblocks chart to get an idea of the hype cycle in low cap names. You will see a long channel form over years, and then eventually nearer to the last 6mnths-1yr, a massive sustained repricing event.

Right now in nyzos case, we just bumped off the bottom of the channel at 1000sats, now at 3000sats. If we see a 5-10x off the bottom of the channel in a short time period (5-10ksats), you should scale some out, to re-buy back lower. All depends on btc as well. Take profit at 3-5x or 5-10x’s, then buy-back in lower in another project for an additional 5-10x (or in the case of nyzo & zel, I am long term bullish, I would wait for pull-back and re-buy lower same amounts, and use the proceeds left over to accumulate other names).

Taking profits is an art, and the key to it is not to expect a 100-1000x straight away, getting blinded by greed.

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Another interesting project is $NEM. No hype what so ever. No one even knew what it did for the longest time, yet it did a x15,000.

It just looked corporate and professional and that’s it.

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@K_Godel Interesting on what you posted earlier, and it pays dividends in the long run to keep that perspective. Trying to look up NYZO, but can’t find it on CMC. Any particular reasons why that is?

You feeling confident we’ll break $9100? I’m not trusting this slight price action at all at the minute, i will look to buy into strength when the market has played all it’s hand…

Buying into strength, you can easily still make 2,3 or even 5x when the market is in full bull flow. For now though, i am still on the side of caution…

When playing in the low cap, high return potential coins, does this have the opportunity to very quickly hit a wall?

That is, let’s say you (for purpose of example) have $15k of NYZO. It 10x’s. It’s now just a $20m mcap. You now have $150k.

You sell some to wait for pull back, and let’s say NYZO does retrace—given the liquidity, wouldn’t it be very hard to re-enter with that new, much larger sum of money?

Or, let’s say you want to use just some to re-enter, but the remaining to accumulate other coins. That would work at first, but what about after compounding again, or again and again? If the returns across NYZO and the new coins go 10x again. Amazing! You’re a millionaire.

But if you want to stay in the market, now what do you do? Are you upgrading and now playing in the area of $20-50m mcap? Are you holding a larger portion of portfolio in large caps (with modest returns) but simply taking larger positions in the small caps than previously possible? It would seem impossible to compound $1m across the coins we’ve been discussing, which sometimes seem to have like $3k of liquidity a day.

Hope the question/concern makes sense.

Yes you got it. Eventually you will have to play mostly mid-caps for multiples (like a Tezos), as investing over $100k in a coin like nyzo in the 3m cap range is not feasible for distribution (nor allocation for that matter) when the time comes.

If your portfolio is currently over 3-5m, you req. a greater % of your portfolio allocated in mid-caps vs low, but you can very easily start a ~100k-~1m portfolio spread over lower caps, grow it into the 1-3m range, and take profits into a variety of additional low caps for the next 4 year cycle (at which point you are looking to re-distribute a few times into baskets of multiple low caps, and of course some mid caps for added liquidity).

I would say $50k into nyzo is still feasible at this point for redistribution. If it 50xs, that is 2.5m to re-allocate at a mid-cap range (now a 150m cap). Totally doable over a week or two, I would try to accumulate my bag at a take-profit level, and any excess look for a new bag, or if I think the project is going to the 1b range, potentially slightly increase allocation amount if the dip is severe enough and I am certain in the project (nyzo, qnt, zel, etc)

People have this misconception that it is always all-or-nothing. You are not going to invest 100% of your holdings in one project, and go from 3m cap to 1000x it to 3b in one go, that’s not feasible; You’ll likely invest in a project that sees that sort of return over the long term, but you’ll take profits at the first 10x, the next 2x (now a 20x on initial bag), see another 5x (100x cumulative), and then if you want the final 10x you could scale out on the last move over weeks with a very large bag per % of total market cap. $50k into nyzo literally means you own 3-5% of total circ. supply, something to keep in mind when the time comes to take profit.

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