SEC says NO to ETF. Crypto is finished. RIP


#1

Wait a minute…hold on there cowboy, the SEC DID NOT reject the recent ETF applications.

The SEC are still considering the ETF applications.

In fact all the SEC said was that they want more time to look at the applications before they give their decision.

The SEC could have just said NO to the ETF applications and have done with it. Job done, thank you and good bye.

But the SEC didn’t say no. They said exactly what they said last week, i.e. they would consider the application.

So what’s the problem?

Why the market crash? Why the panic selling with people running through the crypto streets screaming at the tops of their voices ‘sell, sell, sell. For God sake! Sell and save yourselves!!!’

It should be just business as usual in crypto land UNTIL the SEC say no.

I think this most recent crash is the result of day traders and larger traders (who had been waiting with their fingers on their sell buttons) to hear a no or a postponement notice from the SEC regarding the ETF applications.

These traders know from experiences that weak hands would sell at anything short of positive news from the SEC. Once the big traders heard the ‘postponement’ news they sold straight away. This caused the price of BTC to drop and the weak hands panicked and sold. Just as expected / predicted by the bigger traders. There you go! Job done. Now the traders can pick up the weak hand coins for an even lower price.

The SEC postponement was not bad news. It was actually a sign that they are giving the applications due considerations. The postponement indicates nothing.

Here is something to look forward to (apart from the SEC eventually saying yes to the ETF applications). Seeing the weak hands who sold as a result of this SEC postponement crying in their beer when the ETF gets the go ahead and seeing the price of the crypotos they sold soar back up again!

I don’t like the word ‘hodl’ now. It smacks of the early and desperate days in crypto and has connotations of noobs and ‘Mooners’ and Lambo seekers’.

I will ‘hold’ my coins, i.e. not sell them, because I do believe there will be a recovery in the market.


#2

Good write up. Reasonable enough. But… CLICKBAIT! lol

Anyway, who thought that SEC would say definitive YES right now are not considering that it may take a long while (a couple of month or, worst case, years). They are the government organisation. And as we all know that the governments are slow and inefficient.

If you look at the history of this word, you will see that it’s origins are derived from the bears, not bulls. I mean, it was originated from one of the biggest bear periods in BTC history.

So… Keep on hodling!


#3

Pretty sure the “old boys” are collecting when prices are low and playing “shorts” on the CFD’s.
They just need to keep stringing people along until it’s not hugely profitable anymore.
Then suddenly - boom, SEC says something.

Maybe they will be Fishy :stuck_out_tongue:


#4

Fishy talk to me mate about your thoughts long term, I hear what danosaurs is saying in another thread about BTC trickling down to 5k…and I can see that happening too. I also think a ETF is touch and go at the minute, but i’m hoping they see this as a opportunity to begin a real drive towards regulating this space enough for confidence to return.

Long term bullish, short term not so much mainly revolving around the ETF news.

Maybe 2020 halving is what will bring us the boom we are waiting for! :sweat_smile:


#5

My honest opinion.

BTC is a finite resource, there will be 21M of them, no more.
As with any finite resource, the more people want it, the more value it holds.

How much people want it at a given time, is under the control of the “old boys” media machine and the zoo of zombies that stare at phones all day. Sad, but true.

ETH (and others like it) are not a finite resource. The system prints more resources as time goes along. So now you need a whole lot more people who really want it or value it, for it to perform at the same level on a single unit of that resource. With such a case, the math is exponential, not linear. This is why Forex is in such a mess.

However, based on my analytics, ETH will overtake BTC in Market Cap by around 2040. However, a single unit of ETH will be worth far less than a single unit of BTC, there will just be a whole lot more ETH units.

So crystal ball gazing for the year 2030 (which is when I officially retire)

  1. BTC will be somewhere between 50k and 60k
  2. ETH will be somewhere between 2.5k and 3k
  3. BCash will be at number 3 (as the “old boys” have their sticky fingers in it)

As for the others.

  1. IBM and/or Microsoft and/or Oracle/SAP will stitch up the Supply Chain Market outside of Asia
  2. NEO/Alibaba or an equivalent will carry China, but will be bigger than IBM and Microsoft put together
  3. ICX, VeChain and/or WANChain will provide glue between various other blockchains that capture niche markets to link them with the Supply Chain. Sorry, but VeChain is in the lead at this time for Asia.

This is just my opinion from an old timer that’s been around the “old boys” and knows how they work.

However, for all you know, I might be one of em :stuck_out_tongue:

Stay Fishy


#6

I’d be very disappointed if that’s all it’s worth in 2030.


#7

Hmm, to be precise, the total number of BTCs that will ever be mined is 21million.

However, the total number of BTCs that will ever be available will be less than 21 million. By several millions or perhaps more.

A few reasons why (although there will be many, many more):

  • Lost private keys
  • Forgotten about wallets (when BTC was worth just cents so didn’t matter)
  • Deaths (where no Will or details pertaining to the coins were left or passed on)
  • Suicides (no details of keys left)
  • Imprisoned criminals (with large stashes of BTC who will never be able to access their coins
    again)
  • Accidents (causing brain damage)
  • Health issues (strokes, Altzheimers, dementia)

In terms of BTCs price in the year 2030 being 50k -60k (I assume you mean in $ terms?), with respect, there is no way anyone can predict the price of BTC this time next year, let alone 2 years from now. As for 12 years from now? Forget it. Simply impossible. All things will not remain equal. By the way, does your prediction take into account that the last BTC will be mined somewhere around 2140? Does your prediction assume people will still bother to mine BTC in 2140?

The facts and figures that would inform your analytics that you use to arrive at your predictions will change considerably all the time, making a prediction even remotely accurate an impossibility. Quite frankly there are so many variables and unpredictable events yet to occur that trying to predict the price of BTC in 6 months would be futile.

For example, if the VanEck ETF application gets approved next month then the price of BTC could double or triple inside a month. If this were to happen (anything is possible) then FOMO would kick in so fast your head would spin and the price of BTC could hit $25k by end of year. That means 50% of your claimed 50K in12 years will have been met in the space of 4 months.

What happens if BTC starts to become more widely adopted and starts to cause the US government (or other governments) ‘problems’? How difficult would it be to crush BTC? Lets think about this. What happened in the past 24 hours to cause this most recent crash? Nothing. The SEC (which just happens to be a government body by the way) simply said it was going to take longer to think about the applied for ETF. That’s all it took to send the market into a nose dive.

Now imagine what would happen to the price of BTC if the US government decided to become negative towards BTC and to make ownership and trading in BTC non-advantageous? This is a possibility. The price of BTC would plummet. Good bye to 50k - 60K by 2030.

And these two possible above scenarios are just two of a hundred thousand + scenarios for BTC in terms of what could occur. It is never a good idea to predict the price of BTC any more than a few weeks ahead. To predict the price of BTC in 12 years? Shakes head


#8

Because we have new or uninformed people in the market. Several of your first posts and well everyone at one point had similar posts or thoughts when they were new to this volatile market.

I do not agree with this but this is a completely subjective matter and its your opinion. I do not see it as a desperate saying but do to when it gained popularity I can see how you came to your conclusion. I

Anyhow agree with most of your assessment other than the click bait title. This isn’t YouTube or Facebook where the more clicks you get the higher your rating LOL.


#9

While you are correct that you cannot “predict” the future, you can estimate it based on mathematics.

That’s all I did, plug all the trade numbers into an algorithm and have it extrapolate it to a future date and in fact, I used the Least Squares Linear Regression.

Anything could happen though, but the maths provide an estimated range.

So come 2030, lets see how close I was :stuck_out_tongue:

Stay Fishy


#10

A loaf of bread and a pint of milk will cost $1000 by 2030 or 100 Satoshis. :grin:


#11

I really like your article but clickbait! A good clickbait in fact.


#12

Thoughts on ICX?

ADA?

ETC?

I prefer Bitcoin over ETH long-term but currently trade more in ETH. Not sure why you’re claiming VeChain is ahead in Asia for interconnectivity of chains. Could you please elaborate on the above so I can learn?


#13

ICX offers great technology and I do think it will be good, but I don’t believe it is the next “Samsung” or “Amazon” of the blockchain sphere. There is a couple of flaws., The token is used to pay for the transliterations. So really, it’s not that much different to Microsoft Biztalk, but built on an open ledger. If the token price gets too high, it is trivial to move to a competing process that can cost less. The second issue I see with ICX is the execution of the transliterations happens on nodes, if there is not an autoscale of nodes available to perform the tasks (which costs money), then the process will not execute fast enough (queue too long on busy periods), again leading businesses to look elsewhere. The third issue is, what happens if a transliteration was in mid-stream and the node fails? If nodes are being run in peoples outhouses, there is going to be computer failures. So after looking at the code, they do need to address failure detection and remediation code. Business are not going to monitor it, they are going to expect the people they are paying to take care of the service so that it is 100% reliable to use. It is far from 100% reliable where systems that don’t live in controlled datacenters or built for high availablity with redundant network links are running the software.

ADA is offering some interesting value, but nothing truly innovative. If the dolts stop posting on twitter about standing on some famous rock with a quote “looking for inspiration” and instead talk about how they plan to achieve true innovation and target specific market segments and form partnerships, they will probably join the 90%. These young people need to get off those Apple distractions and start taking MBA courses. Sorry, ADA has some interesting value, but the people running the project need to step aside if it is going to succeed.

ETC is a wild card, there is some interesting developments there and while I don’t think it will coerce business from ETH to ETC, they offer far better value with equivalent ideas and the SputnikVM sounds quite interesting as well. The issue most Businesses will probably have with it, is trust. For consumer grade Apps and simple things like Game trading platforms and such, it may have a place and be within the top 10 in the long term.

I don’t know (or really care) if any of them “moon” or not, I only look at the project for “what could it be used for and where is it’s value in the problem it is trying to solve and how are the team managing the business and the technology”.

If you can see value on what the innovation can be used for and it is technically sound, the target market it is going after and how well the team are managing partnerships, it’s probably not one that will be in the 90%. However, there is an interesting other side to the market. If a smaller project builds and starts to show true promise, the earlier projects that had a huge amount of funds thrown at them, might buy up these ones and consolidate. I am seeing instances of this already starting. So when people say 90% will probably disappear, they may just get consolidated, so it is not that they failed, they were out financed by “old boys” with money :slight_smile:

Stay Fishy


#14

Interesting insight! I know you use a bot for trading, but do you DCA at all? I am in ICX and ETC, but not ADA. I also buy periodically in BTC and ETH. Been thinking about adding NEO at these prices, but feel like they are facing the same problems you brought up with ICX. Thoughts on it?

If you’re comfy sharing, what are you going long on?


#15

Yup, I do DCA and hold several different CDA’s in various projects I think look promising.

NEO has an advantage, 50% of it’s tokens are held by the Chinese State. So there is no guessing what China is going to use and since a third of the world lives there and it is the worlds manufacturing hub, it is probably a safe bet it is going to be around for a while. Couple that with the $billions the Chinese State is throwing at R&D on blockchain tech, I’m sure issues which are present now, will be addressed fairly soon and using methods that have not yet been thought about by other projects :slight_smile:

This is also why I posted about China legislating that Cloud Services must be power efficient under the “Green Cloud Services” initiative, which has lead to the development of MPSoC chips. I get the spidey sense that NEO and MPSoC massively parallel, low power consumption devices will be a thing and sooner than you think.

Stay Fishy