I agree with most of your points, particularly related to trading vs investing.
But, one thing I beg to differ is your point on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still superior over any other cryptos out there because:
- First market mover (novelty of blockchain)
- Longest track record (9 years)
- Most transactions to date
- Most decentralized, if not complete
It is often overlooked how many beatings Bitcoin has endured. Some of the early Bitcoin “clones” (or shall I say clown coins), aren’t even here today anymore. In fact, most coins we are seeing these days were developed no more than 2 years ago. Over 60% of the top 20 coins have actually survived no more than 18 months! Whether they can survive a few more years is anyone’s guess!
Most of the complaints we hear in the news is really because of how many bitcoin transactions out there. One simply doesn’t enter the $500 billion market cap without being challenged with scalability. If any cryptos enter that market cap territory, they will be severely tested for scalability as well. The saving grace is that they aren’t in that territory, so they haven’t needed to face a rigorous test.
In addition, sure, we hear about many cryptos with seemingly faster and lower transaction cost, but the alleged transaction speed has never been tested in real-use application. For example, NEO claims ~1000 txs/sec, but that’s just a theoretical number. This is coming from someone who is bullish on NEO and attended the recent NEO DevCon.
Once lightning network is fully implemented, then most transactions will be near instantaneous with minimal fees (yes, much lower than even LTC).
The biggest strength of Bitcoin is actually its decentralization. No other coins come close in this segment. You may think that this is not important, until you see why Bitcoin was invented in the first place. The ability to TRUST NO INTERMEDIARY is the real reason Bitcoin is the king. Sure, many cryptos claim the same thing, but most of them are still in essence a centralized cryptocurrencies. Take Da Hongfei out and NEO tanks. Take Vitalik out and ETH dumps. Take Charles Hoskinson out Cardano (ADA) vaporizes. Take Min Kim out and so would ICX.
Satoshi Nakamoto is the only person/entity/team that has the courage to invent something, get the wheels going, and then leave it entirely to the development team without disclosing his identity. Hence, every market movement has been independent of the inventor’s influence.
Here’s my overall take:
- Bitcoin will SURELY rise over $20,000. In fact, $20,000 will be just another milestone in BTC’s journey to greater price points.
- Bitcoin will remain king until Satoshi reveals himself.
- Bitcoin price volatility will continue to be strong until it reaches the $2 trillion dollar market cap.
- The “extended” bear market is healthy to shake off weak hands, particularly those ill-informed and uninformed who are here just for quick gains.
Having said all these, people may think that I only hold Bitcoin. That’s not true. Bitcoin is always the king in my portfolio, but I also hold coins with respectable and viable projects.