Technical analysis (what you using?)

#1

There has been a lot of talk of swing trading, day trading in the threads and I was wondering which methodologies (styles) you guys are using to determine your entry and exit points and general thought process towards your TA.
There are so many different indicators and charting styles that to really test them all would take a life time.
so thought it’d be a good idea to start a thread to see if we could learn from each other’s styles or even (although highly unlikely :joy:) possibly come to general consensus on the most profitable way to trade in the daily or weekly time frame.
I think this thread would benefit all in the pub from new members to O.G’s.:v:
I personally like to day trade using three oscillators Macd,stochastics (9,3,1) and rsi along with trending channels on an hourly timeframe. I look for divergence in price movement and at least two of the oscillators to determine whether or not to enter the trade. I look primarily for reversal trends but on occasion trade the trend line if the oscillators are following a similar pattern to the chart.


To be fully transparent I never entered this trade and it is hand picked as an example.
Above there is an obvious down trend. When price was at its lowest point within the green trend lines there was a clear divergence in price against all three oscillators indicating to me the possibility of a reversal and break out of the trend. I would have entered the trade on the first (hourly) green candle that broke the last red sell candle(this being the 3rd green candle) placing my stop below the lows of the first green candle.
My exit point on a bullish move is when the red line of the stoch. 9,3,1 breaks through the 90% line.

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#2

So i use technical analysis but honestly i am skeptical about the validity it holds in crypto. As far as im concerend all it does is perhaps give you an idea of other traders psychology and you can use it to plan your entry and exit points.

End of the day the volailty in crypto doesnt give a fuck about your triangles and support lines. If a whale decides to dump his holdings then your TA goes out the window.

Having said that if i am actively trading i use it to try find entry points into trades. I generally use basic support / resistance lines, general trend lines, maybe have some moving averages up 200 / 50, RSI and MACD. Occasionally bollinger bands and fibonacchi tools for retracement estimations.

Most important things are simply volume and price action. You are going to make your money when the crypto has volume and the price action is working in your favour.

I simply use stuff for my entries and exits: example if a major support line is broke and the volume comes in, confirming a breakout i will enter and have a clear exit plan.
But nowadays im not actively trading as such, more of a long term holder with a small pot for trading. More for fun and to try get better at trading, slowly building a small account.

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#3

Totally agree with your views. I swapped over from learning in the traditional markets and haven’t dipped my toes into trading the crypto space yet. I’ve noticed there’s more volatility and I’m a bit nervous to begin trading until I get a better feel for the markets.
The current state of the market isn’t helping either as I prefer to trade in major bullish or bearish trends rather than sideways consolidation periods.that being said I’m also invested/investing in positions for the long hodl game as well.
Cheers for your input :fist:

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#4

Alright, here comes another brain dump courtesy of my recent hiatus!

So many people have said TA doesn’t work in cryptos. I believed it myself until I decided to shut off all chatter from people and only focus on the charts and indicators.

For almost three months, I traded without regular, daily news feeds and without anyone else’s point of view swaying me. I’m not gonna lie. At first it was a REAL struggle. Almost like I came unhinged and unplugged from an addiction. It was especially rough when we turned the $20k corner and again in mid-Jan when the bottom fell out. The December one, I felt wholly unprepared for. But quickly understood it when I went hunting for the news and saw just how much people were pumping for the moon. The January one, I saw it coming, but didn’t fully trust my interpretations of the charts until it was almost too late. I after a couple days, it quickly became evident I needed to consolidate and stop portfolio erosion in it’s tracks. Then I got back in too soon! I ignored the charts’ TA and thought I knew better based on the historical research I did for the month of January back in November.

But after I got through two major down turns and a couple of mini-bull runs along with generally volatile weekends, it got easier and easier because I simply trusted myself and the charts more and more. Also, I found myself faster and faster at making the all-important trade decisions.

I’m not saying I was perfect, but I was definitely hitting the 6 out of 10 times mark that defines the above average trader. The great thing is, I caught nearly every major big market mover between LTC, BCH, BTC, ICX, TRX, BNB, and COB (plus a smattering of smaller movers) and I got out of more positions with profits faster.

NANO’s recent strength through market down-turn and steady climb last few days is a good recent example and I was out within 3% of it’s peak this morning, but still able to do a few swing trades on it today. It’s not easy to be consistent and you do have to learn to weed out the noise of the pump and dumps going on along the way. Patience and waiting for exactly your favorite setup is the key. Nearly every time I tried to play it too aggressively, I got burnt.

To get to a 60% success rate, I first focused on just getting 1% profits and when I got consistent with that, started getting 2%, then 3%. I didn’t cash out at 2% or 3% if the volume was solid and the coin was showing no signs of slowing down, so just one 6% makes up for two -2%. One 20% made for a very big boost and usually me taking the equity out and leaving that 20% as “free coins” (coins that cost me $0 to HODL).

To this day, I’m still targeting 2% and 3% to enter a trade, but I’m also better at gauging likelihood of the coins climbing X% to reach some target (or several, really). In my view, it’s far better to target smaller profits and make them than to swing big for home runs and keep missing. If you’re targeting smaller gains, you have higher likelihood of being in a trade when it suddenly takes off. TRX was like that. I never heard of this coin. I simply bought it then watched in amazement as it climbed, and climbed, and climbed.

The bottom line: TA works, but we’re heavily swayed by what others say and what the news say. We become biased towards or against specific coins and that, in turn, sullies your TA. Even so, I do believe FA + TA are the most powerful combo. When both are in agreement, the results are often stratospheric and an absolute thrill to watch.

Also, it’s not always just doing TA or FA or both. It’s about choosing your moments. Some days, I do several trades in a day using multiple markets. Other days, I trade only one coin because it’s oscillating very nicely and somewhat predictably. Some days, I call it quits after just 30 minutes because the market is unreadable. I’ve twice gone more than a week with absolutely no trades. It’s also about finding what works and what doesn’t. Patterns you learn to recognize for yourself as a set up ideal for your risk/reward tolerance.

Although this post is about trading and TA, I would be remiss not to point out that I do not trade 100% of my portfolio. 70% to 80% are core HODL. Trading is done with the rest of the funds. Most positions are opened with 2% to 5% of that. So, as you can see, diversified portfolio with different timeframes for the investments in mind. Trading is obviously very short to mid-term (one to two weeks isn’t uncommon for many positions opened).

I got here from basically zero charting skills starting in August '17, but truly got serious after a few months of reading and watching in November. To do it, I kept detailed notes on every trade. What worked, what didn’t.
coupled with try, try, try again with really small dollar amount. Above all else, it was starting with small positions and targets that was the ultimate game changer for me.

I hope this helps others learn what it takes and general roadmap to becoming good at this. It’s a tough road. Stressful at times. But worth it for me. It’s a lot less stressful now than even a month ago simply because my decision making is a lot more systematic and I’ve grown comfortable and more confident that I’m spotting the trends, the bull vs. bear patterns and markers and generally just feeling more comfortable with the tools of the charting library.

I’m still learning at a rapid rate, but the bulk of the learning is now in the interpretation of the charts and spotting patterns within patterns. I still have NO CLUE about Elliot waves. I’m just now starting to learn about fractal analysis. I still perceive a long road ahead to mastery. If I had to self rate, I’d call myself Intermediately skilled trader/investor. I also consider myself a hybrid trader, taking the best of buying and holding and combining with active trading.

Bottom line: TA works for crypto. It even works in spite of the manipulation that’s happening. The reason being, because to manipulate, there are certain patterns as whale must trade to push prices in a direction favorable to their goals. Whales are not going to go losing money blindly. They’re going to play the market so that they profit as they push and pull. That targeted outcome actively takes time and doesn’t happen overnight. Which means, their activity manifests in the charts and TA will sleuth it out. TA tells you what is while FA (fundamental analysis) tells you why it is. Whether it’s whales generating the volume and action or bots doing it or real live humans in the mix making things happen…it’s all laid down in them there charts.

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#5

Wow, thanks again @mwlang an amazing insight into your trading philosophy.

Exactly what I missed out, risk management based on the % of your portfolio you trade is so important to a trading plan thanks for highlighting this. I read somewhere that you shouldn’t really risk anymore than 5% of your portfolio on any given trade?

I was wondering last night if this thread would generate enough interest to keep it open, in hindsight I think I can understand why people don’t want to post their strategies and discuss TA .

  1. It’s not an easy thing to put into words.(time consuming)
  2. fear of copy cats blaming them for losses etc,etc,etc…

Really I just wanted to make a thread where newcomers could come and see that it’s not as simple as some perceive it to be when first being seduced by trading (as I did) and at least get a general idea of the time needed to be put in educating themselves to give them a chance of being profitable.

Thanks again for adding this content to the thread and giving up your time to do so :fist:

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#6

I just watch philakone daily lol

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#7

@7UP Noooooooooo! lol
What happens when eventually fucks off ? :cold_sweat:

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#8

ill find someone else to watch lol

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#9

Your not helping here :joy: :joy:

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#11

TA has no value at all, if you do not backtest your hypotheses. Without doing rigorous testing, how would you know that your assumptions are valid? You don’t want to figure out that your strategy is wrong by losing money!

Using TA without having done the mathematical proofs, is the same as throwing a dice.

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