The argument for $3,000 Bitcoin


#1

For people hoping that Bitcoin will find new ATH after hitting $6k, I seriously doubt that will happen. Here’s one number that explains why:

87%

That’s how much Bitcoin dropped after finding ATH back in November 2013. If we dropped 87% from the near $20,000 ATH in 2017, Bitcoin would be at ~$2,500.

I know for people that have been in Bitcoin for a long time (or people that have read up on Bitcoin like me) know that Mt. Gox shutting down was probably the major reason why we fell 87%. But here’s the thing: Mt. Gox shut down in February 2014. Do you know when Bitcoin completed it’s bear market run of losing 87% of its value? (Click below to see the date).

1/14/2015 Almost a year after Mt. Gox failed

Yes. It took that long for Bitcoin to begin recovering from it’s lowest point since ATH. I know no single exchange in 2018 had the sway and trade volume Mt. Gox had back in 2014. But this crash and bear market is feeling a lot like that one even without the same cause. Granted, we really don’t have much record to go on as the previous crash before the 2013 ATH was in April 10, 2013. But that crash lasted 6 days although the price drop was just as tremendous at 81%.

So will Bitcoin drop to ~$3,000? Think of it as a theoretical possibility. Using that as a price reference, even $6,000 Bitcoin seems overpriced. But personally, I am following the Mayer Multiple and dollar cost averaging very small amount everyday. If it does hit $3,000, I’m buying 2 Bitcoins.


#2

I’d love to be able to buy a 3K btc. I have a feeling I am not the only one, that’s why I believe it won’t go there. But time will tell. :v:


#3

That’s why I’m hedging by dollar cost averaging in. Even If it doesn’t get there, I will still have picked up some Bitcoin at excellent value. After all, the duration and the percentage drop in Bitcoin gives me hope for $300,000 Bitcoin, but that’s another story for another post.


#4

Very good way to put it. DCA is honestly my favorite form of participating in this market. Removes all emotion from investing.

I personally don’t see the market dropping off anytime soon as daily trading volume is still very healthy. Good indicator that we should still see volatile price action going forward.


#5

I think it is gonna get much more difficult to get down to 3k from here I do think it still could fall a bit more but the bears appear to be slowing down only so much Bitcoin to sell before you reach a level that people laugh at selling it at. I’m actually hoping for a long term bear market at this point a few years would be awesome to build my stack while the tech improves but unlike 2014 the blockchain has the attention of the big guys now. I would fully believe we would hit 3k if not for the fact that the media is pushing so hard to drop the price so the big boys can get it cheap. I think some of these whales will break before long even working together once 1 of them decides the price is to good not to get in this bear cycle ends.


#6

DCA all the way to the moon.


#7

I would personally love for it to hit 3k just so that I and many others who jumped on the train “late” could get a chance to get our own moon tickets…and get to queue the “Cha-ching…Hallelujah!” score when we confirm the buy. :star_struck::btc::innocent:

On the flip side, should the price hit that low, it would encourage some whales to try to dominate the buys and later on, dominate (and coordinate) the dumps. Everything has a lash back, so we need to bare these factors in mind.


#8

The bear only gets slowed by the people that believe the price is an awesome deal. We as a humans love round even numbers, so $6,000 and $5,000 are the points that you expect a lot of people or mammals (if we include whales) to buy in. I seriously doubt the whales will show up for $6,000 and the people won’t be able to hold that price up for long. So $5,000 is the critical point.

If the whales don’t show up for $5,000, we will be sliding to $3,000. I also see this as a long term bear like you are hoping for. People are really concerned about regulations and those don’t get resolved overnight.


#9

I think your right some newer people and big (wall street) money do worry about regs the old crypto guys don’t care about them realize they really can’t stop this train. I do think the big money will know long before any of us about what is to come with regs and most likly will have a lot of say over what they pass at least in the US for laws. I know when I got into crypto I laughed at the thought of the govt. trying to stop crypto and the more I hear them talk about it the more it proves my point they can scare people but really all they can do is pretend they can stop this train.


#10

Seems like everyone and their brother wants to go biggly into bitcoin once it reaches the $3000 mark. To include a coworker who doesn’t believe in bitcoin but boast about his trading skills. So if he’s going big at 3k think I’ll go big at 3100. But you knew this so you all will beat me to it at $3200 and so on. We might have a ways to drop but I don’t think it will make $3000.


#11

back on nov 12 during the BCH fail… BTC dropped to 5k and Novogratz bought 15-20 mil on that dip from 7k… obv times are different but im sure if 5k were hit let alone anything below , there will be a lot of buyers waiting there.


#12

Unless you or your coworker are whales that can buy up a 1,000 BTC at $3,100, your buys won’t be moving much of a needle. Just looking at the market depth on GDAX, it takes 1,000 BTC to move the price $500 (BTC/USD trade pair, from $7,000 to $6,500). Granted, that amount of fiat will move BTC more than $500 if BTC is trading at $3,000.

I’m not saying Bitcoin will go to $3,000, just that people should see it currently as overvalued as Bitcoin has the potential to fall that low as it have done so in the past.

It really comes down to if the whales believe that or not. One thing about whales is that they will only come in if there is truly fear in the market. Having endured January and February, March has been a breeze. If they can short the market to get Bitcoin to drop below the $5k support level only to pick it up at $3k, I’m sure they would. $5k is the natural support level in everyone’s mind. If they can push through that, they are going to freak a lot of people out.

That isn’t to say it will come to an exact stop at $3k, but if it falls through $5k, I don’t think it will stop at $4k.


#13

@2thdoc, That’s the hope that everyone have. What if the buyers are not there at $5k? I’m not sure Novogratz will be there to pick more up. I would think he would look for a bargain rather than add to his position at the same price.

@MoneyMan, I think there’s the other thread in the Good Reads section saying Bitcoin is already being manipulated by whales. Dropping to $3,000 wouldn’t change much except give those whales even more power to swing the prices. As long as we are solid in our conviction, have long term plans and exit strategies, it shouldn’t affect us.


#14

Yes you are correct. If the whales want to crash “THER” market to zero they can. But what I am contemplating is if they would do this at the same time I believe the retail investor will come alive. Could be more expensive for the whales for increasingly diminishing returns. But I am just speaking off the cuff and could be 180 degrees off base.


#15

Guys, your conversation about Whales crashing the market has me thinking about a recent post I read about “bitcoin cartels” this was posted by someone on twitter (@Super_Crypto). This person speaks of how the price of BTC will be suppressed for years. Says it began on btc futures came into play in Dec of '17. Seems interesting. Wonder what the pub thinks? Doesnt sound like FUD either. I think its an interesting read. I’ll have to find it and post it. But it can be found on their twitter handle. No, I’m not promoting this dude whatsoever. Just an interesting read I thought we could gain some advantage from.


#16

I read about this and my belief is that they knew about futures this summer and started to buy it up around the 3k mark once they got the ball rolling they released the media on it to really get the hype train going. I think this started to cause a panic to get into bitcoin and they had a bought up a bunch around the 3-5k mark they were hoping it would hit extream highs before futures started. I think that once the future contracts hit they took the short on a contract and then began to sell knowing they would be selling the top taking a big gain plus the further in fell the more they would make on the future short contract win win. I just know if I was a whale this is exactly how I would play it. This is only my thoughts and I have no real proof but the market did drop right after you could take a short contract just saying :slight_smile:


#17

@edwin, Yes it is possible. But are they also the culprates for similar crashes in 2013, 2014? If not then it might be bitcoin being bitcoin. Need more data.


#18

They can only suppress bitcoin for so long because of the limited supply. Futures don’t mean anything when exchanges are the ones controlling the movement. Eventually the bear whale who is selling bitcoin to gain on his short futures will run out of bitcoin to sell on exchanges.

Also at a certain point it will be easier for the whale to become a bull.


#19

I am not sure how this works, but if I were a whale and my only motivation was to cash out a large stack of my coins I wouldn’t sell them on an exchange. I think I could get more in OTC. However if my intention was to increase my holdings I would start a sell off stampede and slowly buy up at the bottom. So I do not think whales will run out of bitcoin.


#20

I think it will take a few months to get to a 3,000 dollar Bitcoin. At this rate, its been sideways 6000 action because its such a good deal even at 6000…I mean cmon…