For people hoping that Bitcoin will find new ATH after hitting $6k, I seriously doubt that will happen. Here’s one number that explains why:
That’s how much Bitcoin dropped after finding ATH back in November 2013. If we dropped 87% from the near $20,000 ATH in 2017, Bitcoin would be at ~$2,500.
I know for people that have been in Bitcoin for a long time (or people that have read up on Bitcoin like me) know that Mt. Gox shutting down was probably the major reason why we fell 87%. But here’s the thing: Mt. Gox shut down in February 2014. Do you know when Bitcoin completed it’s bear market run of losing 87% of its value? (Click below to see the date).
1/14/2015 Almost a year after Mt. Gox failed
Yes. It took that long for Bitcoin to begin recovering from it’s lowest point since ATH. I know no single exchange in 2018 had the sway and trade volume Mt. Gox had back in 2014. But this crash and bear market is feeling a lot like that one even without the same cause. Granted, we really don’t have much record to go on as the previous crash before the 2013 ATH was in April 10, 2013. But that crash lasted 6 days although the price drop was just as tremendous at 81%.
So will Bitcoin drop to ~$3,000? Think of it as a theoretical possibility. Using that as a price reference, even $6,000 Bitcoin seems overpriced. But personally, I am following the Mayer Multiple and dollar cost averaging very small amount everyday. If it does hit $3,000, I’m buying 2 Bitcoins.