To Invest that precious house savings money or not?

I’ve been wrestling with this for a few weeks. Fortunately bitcoin has been prohibitively high, so it’s kept me from pulling the trigger. As the title suggests, I’m wondering whether it’s a smart idea to put at least half of what my wife and I have tucked away for a down payment on a house into the market. I’m normally very conservative when it comes to investing, but the risk vs. reward on this is something I can’t seem to grasp.

I’m thinking of putting in $10k of the savings and hoping to see a nice return on it a little less than a year. I say this because we’ve been renting from Satan for the past three years and holy hell if I see my family go through one more year with this landlord. So, time is certainly of the essence.

I feel that $10K (a little less than half saved so far) is an amount that if I were to lose 50% of, it wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world, but at the same time I don’t want to put my family back through another year at this rental. I’m trying to counter my emotions of FOMO by taking time to find that right entry and holding on, but honestly, this is a decision that I can’t seem to make.

I’d love to hear opinions, advice, even personal stories of success or failure when it comes to this. Please feel free to tell me this is the stupidest idea you’ve ever heard.

Thanks, fam.

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just my humble opinion but id make sure to take care of the family situation first. in the meantime i would set a weekly/monthly budget and start dollar cost averaging into crypto market, if you are already not doing so. Im optimistic about crypto long term but what if we went into bear market for some reason? Cant afford to lose it,absolutely dont invest it!

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My thoughts (at least half of them) exactly. Setting short term expectations like this is probably a recipe for disaster. Thanks for the honest input.

And yes, DCA is the way to do it!

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now if the overall crypto market took something like a 50% drop in next couple months i may consider finding a new rental and put house goals off a few more years :slight_smile: Totally understand the feeling though, all i think about now is how can i put more money into crypto lol. There is a lot of optimism around btc and crypto right now, which is well justified but i could easily see btc have a significant pull back within a year. Or maybe thats just me wishing…

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I don’t have kids yet so I can only comment from my somewhat limited understanding, SO… If I had the cash I would do a one off heavy investment (maybe one coin) to get into the market and then dollar cost every week from then on.

I’m talking to my mum about this very thing at the moment as she has “house deposit” savings but the goal post keeps getting further and further away in the current housing boom that NZ is experiencing.

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And this here is exactly where the other half of my head is. I feel like it could be a somewhat safe bet to buy in on a nice lump sum, then DCA after that. I thirst for that 1.0 BTC in my stash, but have to fight off that urge to look at the 30,000 foot perspective.

Are we on the precipice of a large correction with BTC? Who knows. I have a feeling in my bones that we are. But how can we be sure? The fiat market is in free fall and with this North Korea nonsense escalating, the possibility of more investors flooding into the crypto market could be a very real thing. So many variables!

But, I do agree with your strategy very much. I think I will only move to make a large investment if the price drops below $4000. If not, then probably stick to adding in $100 each week. In any case, I’ve learned again and again over my life how unhealthy immediate gratification can be.

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not sure if it’s recommended but i am tempted to have a decent sum waiting in fiat on the exchange in case there is a larger correction also below $4k. that would be a great entry point to make that 1 large start. it will be a pain to try and transfer money in at the time, especially if you are doing ach transfer, and the market could bounce from the bottom within hours. on the other hand, like others mentioned, have to take care of the fam first. maybe you don’t go directly into home purchase and just find a better place to rent when your contract is up?

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Not to sway you one way or the other but here is an article similar to the original I read weeks ago. They called the last bull run and sell off correctly. Will they be right again? Who knows. If they are right, I have that fat stack ready. Until then I’ll continue cost averaging.

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Here, here! I can only imagine how great it feels to have 1BTC sitting there looking up at you.

What is making everyone think a correction is coming? (I’m so, so noob) I must have missed those signals?!

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I’d be very cautious. You have already said that the money is “precious”. I invest with spare money and its alot easier to play a high risk game when the stakes are lower.

I would never take money out of my Bond to put into crypto, you have to balance a portfolio and immovable property is an investment. I’d hold onto your deposit and try shave down monthly expenses then play with that money.

remember rule number 1: Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

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Don’t just jump all in, do DCA.
Invest 1k this month and then 1k the next month and so on.
Do it over the course of 10 months.

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Well… seems that China helped bring down the prices across the board this morning (afternoon for everyone else.) So so close to $4000, but so far away… I’ve been following the patterns for the coins I hold and it seems as if bitcoin isn’t as affected as nearly all the others.

Since I hold a marketing degree, I rely more heavily on environment changes than charts to see how the market will change on the macro level. At least for the time being.

I ask questions such as: Is bitcoin remaining above $4000 because it has no relation to being an ICO and therefore investors are more confident with its future? Are people now fearful of their investments in altcoins and are they reinvesting in bitcoin? Will the historically inverse relationship between mainstream news coverage of bitcoin and its price remain? (In other words, when Jim Cramer starts saying “buy Bitcoin!”, the floor gets knocked out from under bitcoin, but when news pieces start running with headlines like “The death of Bitcoin!”, prices soon after start rallying.)

So, right now, I’m interested to see if this China regulation will exacerbate the coming correction or if people’s fears will keep the price somewhat stable. This morning seems to have been a game changer in the market and I have no idea which direction we are going. :upside_down_face:

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So, when I first read this news piece, it made me uncomfortable, especially when bitcoin did hit that mark and then reverse. The timeline was awfully convenient for GS:

First, there was a huge selloff in other markets (I can’t be sure, but I think I read $13 billion.)
Then we see these major pumps and dumps, making bitcoin’s price rise to the $5000 mark.
THEN, we see a huge selloff at (what do you know?) $13 billion.

While I don’t know if we will ever know the cause, it seems as if this was all a pretty coordinated manipulation by some very powerful investors. And taking in all this circumstantial evidence, my bet is it was Wall Street and Goldman Sachs who made it happen.

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Well I don’t fault anyone for making money. Just have to remember there is a difference between traders and investors. I consider myself an investor. The traders help me in my goal because it shows potential of what the asset can do. Now as we hit this down trend I look to the very small market memory we have in the charts and hope I can find support levels and possible entry points to start watching for to buy larger sums at, while still keeping to my cost averaging buys. Also I’m sure the team at GS has different goals in mind than I and possibly your self. They want more fiat, I am looking for more BTC. Lastly I have noticed that the traders like to double their earnings. So what ever bottom we hit next before the next bull run I would expect that number to get close to doubling. The pullback to 1800 went to 3600-3800 before it pulled back to I believe 2200-2400ish which went to almost 5000. I don’t have a chart open so please don’t quote me on those numbers. But there is a pattern there. Will it always be the same? Probably not. That is why there is such high risks with this.

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Well said. Finding the patterns in which these big traders use on bitcoin seem to be very pronounced (perhaps more than any other market out there?) and I think it’s a very important thing for us to keep in mind while we are plotting the future course of the coin. I may spend some time and research those points in time to see if it helps me better understand the trends.

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Same with ETH. Key spot I remember was nothing for weeks (accumulation) at 80-90 the quick double to 180 followed by another quick double+ to 400 followed by a drop due to news that to me was significant, ETH network couldn’t keep up with transactions. Obviously showed asset was over priced. LTC did the same look at the accumulation from 4-8 to 18-22 to 40-45 to ATH last week of almost 100. But I have to say LTC is the most organic growth in my opinion.

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I would second what most of the other commenters are saying. Do dollar cost averaging.

But i would air on the side of caution. You mentioned this is your future home’s savings… to me, thats future bread money, and we DO NOT play with bread money. If this money is what gets you out from living under satan and there’s a chance you can lose it with the downtrending market, then I would tell you dont touch it. Just do your normal weekly DCA into the market at a smaller amount and use that to add to your train ticket away from satan landlord.

Don’t let FOMO of this market and potential huge gains sway you my man… The market will always be here, there will always be a new coin that 5x or 10x or 20x. We’re still in a very immature market, plenty of room to grow! Its only been a couple years, we wont be subjected to those minuscule gains of 5-10% yearly ROI

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@spacemonkey: Recommended or not, @mpresiv1’s idea of moving funds into USD wallet is what I’m actively doing. I’m watching the coins with Fibonacci retracement zones on tradingview.com and waiting for the dips into certain zones and then watching if the trend reverses out of that zone or not. If it does, then it’s my intent to pull the trigger at the zone boundary for HODL position (3 to 5+ years).

I think in you’ve identified your pain threshold and that’s a good guiding post to setting a plan to. If $10k seems painful, then just start at $1,000 or $5k and follow the market and analyze for next buy opportunity, or settle to $100/wk, or whatever. That way you’re not in analysis paralysis.

Always be working within your comfort zone when speculating!

Michael

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Never invest money that you can’t afford to lose. I really believe in this very basic principle.

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Only invest with what your comfortable losing, just in case of a worst case scenario.(Highly unlikely to lose everything tho)

In some states like Washington there are “down payment programs” where you only have to put as little as 1% down to purchase a home. Thus, you can purchase a home with putting down less then the traditional 20-10% but you will most likely have to pay PMI.

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