Polymarket - prediction markets gettn' out of hand?

Ricardo_Martinez said:
oh hell it seems polymarket got banned in netherlands in february . so more and more countries blocking it. eventually its gonna be banned everywhere except fully unregulated jurisdictions
Click to expand...
for good tbh

platform needs either serious regulation or to be shut down. the death threat incident proved that betting on war creates dangerous situations
 
ban wont solve anything, people will just use VPN like they do for everything else
better solution would be requiring polymarket to only allow markets with objective resolution criteria. no more "based on media reports" bullshit
 
Another problem is defining "objective" even something like "did bitcoin hit $100k today?" can be disputed. which exchange? which timestamp? what if different exchanges show different prices?
Resolution is always going to have some subjectivity that's why having trusted oracle system matters
 
The insider trading is getting ridiculous - saw wallets make $400k on the zachxbt/axiom prediction. odds were 13.8% for axiom but someone bet huge knowing zach would reveal them

how is that different from stock market insider trading? should be illegal on my opinion
 
HaasS. said:
The insider trading is getting ridiculous - saw wallets make $400k on the zachxbt/axiom prediction. odds were 13.8% for axiom but someone bet huge knowing zach would reveal them

how is that different from stock market insider trading? should be illegal on my opinion
Click to expand...
because its not regulated securities market. legally its just gambling. insider info on sports bets isn't illegal either mate
 
john said:
because its not regulated securities market. legally its just gambling. insider info on sports bets isn't illegal either mate
Click to expand...
just maybe it should be tho don't you think? if financial markets have insider trading laws to protect fairness, why not prediction markets?
 
Because gambling isn't considered investment. Stock market has regulations because its core infrastructure of economy. Gambling is entertainment.
But prediction markets blur that line. If companies start using Polymarket odds for decision making, suddenly its not just entertainment anymore
 
anyone else think the whole AI agents thing is connected to polymarket? like people running bots to automatically bet on certain events based on news scraping and sentiment analysis
probably happening already
 
Wildezt said:
anyone else think the whole AI agents thing is connected to polymarket? like people running bots to automatically bet on certain events based on news scraping and sentiment analysis
probably happening already
Click to expand...
C'mon where are no AI nowadays??
 
Wildezt said:
anyone else think the whole AI agents thing is connected to polymarket? like people running bots to automatically bet on certain events based on news scraping and sentiment analysis
probably happening already
Click to expand...
100% this is happening. you can see some wallets making thousands of tiny bets on btc price movements. let's be real no human is doing that manually
 
tried betting on "will satoshi move coins in 2026" market - put $50 on yes at like 200:1 odds. figured why not, if it happens i make bank
then realized i have no idea what counts as "satoshi's coins" and resolution criteria is vague af
this is the problem with polymarket - half the markets have unclear rules
 
Tracy said:
tried betting on "will satoshi move coins in 2026" market - put $50 on yes at like 200:1 odds. figured why not, if it happens i make bank
then realized i have no idea what counts as "satoshi's coins" and resolution criteria is vague af
this is the problem with polymarket - half the markets have unclear rules
Click to expand...
they reference arkham intel for satoshi coins list but yeah its not perfectly defined. what if coins move that MIGHT be satoshi but not confirmed?

these edge cases cause problems when money is involved
 
the whole "who decides resolution" thing seems like fundamental flaw. cuz in traditional betting, outcomes are clear. ball crosses line = goal scord, race finishes - winner determined

in prediction markets half the outcomes require interpretation. that's where manipulation and disputes happen
 
peter said:
the whole "who decides resolution" thing seems like fundamental flaw. cuz in traditional betting, outcomes are clear. ball crosses line = goal scord, race finishes - winner determined

in prediction markets half the outcomes require interpretation. that's where manipulation and disputes happen
Click to expand...
not always tho seen plenty of sports betting disputes over whether something was offside, whether foul occurred before buzzer, etc
ref decisions are subjective too but we accept them because ref is neutral third party
polymarket's problem is their "neutral third party" is token holders who might have bets on the outcome
 
UMA's design tries to prevent this through economic incentives. Idea is disputing costs money, so people wont dispute unless theyre sure theyre right. and voters who vote wrong lose tokens
in theory it works but in practice rich actors can manipulate it
 
saw someone made $2.3 million in one month just betting on btc 5-minute price movements
like how is that even possible without inside info or manipulation
 
Angela said:
saw someone made $2.3 million in one month just betting on btc 5-minute price movements
like how is that even possible without inside info or manipulation
Click to expand...
probably running sophisticated bot with ML models. 5-min price prediction is basically high-frequency trading. can be profitable if your model is good enough. still seems sketchy tho as those returns are insane
 
anyway elon musk tweet markets are hilarious. you can bet on how many times hell tweet per week. someone won $83k betting on specific range
literally gambling on one persons social media habits. what a time to be alive
 
Indo-Crypto said:
anyway elon musk tweet markets are hilarious. you can bet on how many times hell tweet per week. someone won $83k betting on specific range
literally gambling on one persons social media habits. what a time to be alive
Click to expand...
I'd prefer Trump's 😂
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top