do you bet based on odds or your own analysis?

[Genesis]

been tracking my bets for a few months now:

54% win rate on pre-match bets, average odds 1.85​

and only 41% win rate on live bets, average odds 2.20​

making money on pre-match, losing on live. goodoldfiat is right about tracking being important

do you use implied probability in your tracking or just win/loss? thinking i should start tracking properly if im gonna take this seriously

 

[Sloane]

do you use implied probability in your tracking or just win/loss? thinking i should start tracking properly if im gonna take this seriously

yeah i calculate implied prob for every bet and my expected prob. than track actual results vs both. helps see if im just getting lucky or actually finding value

been using this: stake / (odds × stake) = implied probability

 

[HarryvdV]

yeah i calculate implied prob for every bet and my expected prob. than track actual results vs both. helps see if im just getting lucky or actually finding value

been using this: stake / (odds × stake) = implied probability

Small correction I'd say it's just 1/odds for decimal odds so 2.50 odds = 1/2.50 = 0.40 = 40% implied probability.
Your formula would give same answer but extra steps. Either way tracking is smart, most bettors don't do it at all

 

[asharp]

i tried tracking for like 2 weeks then gave up. its too much work for something that's suposed to be fun. rather just bet and see what happens

 

[goodoldfiat]

i tried tracking for like 2 weeks then gave up. its too much work for something that's suposed to be fun. rather just bet and see what happens

Then you're gambling for entertainment not profit, which is fine with me jjust don't expect to make money if you're not putting in work. people who win long-term treat it like a job - tracking, analyzing, finding edges. It's not that fun but brings more in the end..

 

[Genesis]

yea maybe gonna start tracking my bets too and actually thinking about implied probability before placing as well. see if i can beat the bookies or if im just donating money lol

 

[peter]

sure most people lose in the long run, bookies wouldn't exist otherwise. but at least if you track it you'll know where you stand
so GL mate

 

[Entropy]

Just accept tha fact that no matter how smart we try to be, we cannot avoid losin, because this is inevitable so we must not do away with risk when it comes to gambling because it is part of what we take to play bet and also stand in a position of winning if we're lucky to win

 

[360kickflip]

Just accept tha fact that no matter how smart we try to be, we cannot avoid losin, because this is inevitable so we must not do away with risk when it comes to gambling because it is part of what we take to play bet and also stand in a position of winning if we're lucky to win

thanks Cap

 

[AllInSzn]

c'mon guys obviously program for the house to benefit more than the gamblers. you noly realized it now or wha??