do you bet based on odds or your own analysis?

Genesis

Genesis

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ive been betting on football for couple years now and just realized i might be looking at odds wrong. always just picked teams i thought would win and checked if odds were worth it. but my mate says odds actually show probability and i should be calculating implied probability before betting
like if odds are 2.50 that means bookies think there's 40% chance of winning (1/2.50)
do you guys actually do this math or just bet on what you think will happen?
 
odds don't show real probability mate, they show what the bookies want you to bet
if real madrid playing some sunday league team the odds might be 1.05 for madrid but their actual chance of winning is like 99%
the odds are there to balance the books not reflect true probabilities
 
peter said:
the books not reflect true probabilities
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This is half true. Odds are influenced by betting volume but they do start from the bookmaker's assessment of probability. If you see drastically different odds between bookmakers for same match, that tells you something. One bookie thinks probability is different or one is getting hammered with action on one side
Smart bettors look for value - where your calculated probability is higher than implied odds suggest
 
i just look at h2h and recent form then check if odds make sense. if man city playing brighton and city is like 1.30 odds that seems about right. if its 2.00 somethings wrong, either city has injuries or bookies know something
 
The relationship between odds and probability is complicated because:
  1. Bookmaker sets opening line based on their model (this IS probability-based)
  2. Sharp bettors hit the line if they see value
  3. Public money comes in (often on favorites)
  4. Bookmaker adjusts odds to manage exposure
So final odds are mix of probability assessment + market forces. You can't ignore either part. For Genesis - yes you should understand implied probability. If odds are 2.50 (40% implied) but you think real chance is 50%, that's a value bet.
 
Genesis said:
how do i know what the real chance is?
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You don't, that's the point. Nobody does. Even the bookmakers are guessing based on data. But if you watch football closely you might spot things bookies miss - team playing 3 matches in a week, key player carrying injury, manager under pressure, etc
Your edge comes from knowing something the odds don't reflect yet
 
this is why i stick to over/under goals. kinda easier to analyze than match winner. look at both teams avg goals scored/conceded, current form, h2h. then compare to the line. so if line is 2.5 goals but both teams averaging 3+ goals per match recently, take the over
 
chazzledazzle said:
listen ive been betting for 5 years and honestly still just go with gut feel most of atime. pretty tried doing all the probability calculations and tracking ev and all that, just made it less fun. now i bet what i think happens and sometimes win sometimes lose
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If you're betting for entertainment that's fine. But if you want to actually profit long-term you need to think about value and probability.
Bettin randomly based on gut feel is guaranteed to lose money over time because of the vig/margin built into odds
 
this is why i stopped betting favorites simple
odds are like 1.30 so you need to win 77% of the time just to break even. one upset and you're down big
better value on underdogs imo, lose more often but when you hit it actually pays
 
rileyaok said:
this is why i stopped betting favorites simple
odds are like 1.30 so you need to win 77% of the time just to break even. one upset and you're down big
better value on underdogs imo, lose more often but when you hit it actually pays
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Not automatically. Favorites are favorites for a reason - they win more often. The question is whether odds accurately reflect win probability. Sometimes favorites are underpriced, sometimes overpriced. Value can exist anywhere on the odds spectrum. It's about finding mismatch between implied probability and your assessment
 
so basically bookies set odds based on probability + market movement and i need to have my own probability assessment
also bet when my probability higher than implied odds and acept that im still guessing and might be wrong huh
is that the gist of it?
 
Genesis said:
so basically bookies set odds based on probability + market movement and i need to have my own probability assessment
also bet when my probability higher than implied odds and acept that im still guessing and might be wrong huh
is that the gist of it?
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Yes exactly. And track your results over time to see if your assessments are actually better than the market. Cos' if you're losing money long-term, either the bookies are better at probability than you, or you're not finding value, or variance hasn't evened out yet.

Most people fall into first category - bookmakers are very good at setting lines.
 
what about live betting? odds move so fast during match! i tried betting in-play on premier league and odds change every 30 seconds. how you supposed to calculate probability when game is actively happening
 
cheelay said:
what about live betting? odds move so fast during match! i tried betting in-play on premier league and odds change every 30 seconds. how you supposed to calculate probability when game is actively happening
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jeez mate that's the thing - you don't lol and that's why live betting is even harder to beat. odds react instantly to everything happening on pitch. by time you place bet the value is usually gone
only way to win at live betting is if you're watching and see something odds haven't adjusted for yet. like keeper getting injured and backup is shit
 
live betting is pure adrenaline rush tho. i watched arsenal vs city last month, arsenal up 2-0 at halftime, city odds went to like 4.50. took city cause pep always adjusts at half time
city won 3-2, easiest money ever. sometimes you just know
 
cryptowine said:
live betting is pure adrenaline rush tho. i watched arsenal vs city last month, arsenal up 2-0 at halftime, city odds went to like 4.50. took city cause pep always adjusts at half time
city won 3-2, easiest money ever. sometimes you just know
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Did you count all you know betts hadn't played too?? One winning bet doesn't mean you "know" anything. That's variance mate. If you consistently beat live betting markets over hundreds of bets then maybe you have an edge. But most people remember the wins and forget the losses.
 
been tracking my bets for a few months now:
54% win rate on pre-match bets, average odds 1.85​
and only 41% win rate on live bets, average odds 2.20​

making money on pre-match, losing on live. goodoldfiat is right about tracking being important
 
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