Got limited to 12p max stake for winning too. is every book doing this now or is it just me

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I guess thats three books now @AccaAttack. had a decent few months on the football, nothing mad, just actually doing my homework and not being a mug. logged in saturday to get a bet on and my max stake is now TWELVE PENCE. twelve. p. they didn't even email me, just quietly factored me down to nothing
third one to do this to me this year. so whats a winning punter actually meant to do now? feels like the second you stop losing they pull the ladder up. is everyone getting this or have i just been unlucky with which books i picked
 
yeah mate everyones getting it, its not you. win consistently and you're a liability on their books, so they stake factor you into oblivion or gub you outright. been like this for years and its got worse.
the old shop couldn't do this. you walked in with cash, they took your bet, end of. they didn't have an algorithm deciding you were too good to serve
 
its the whole model, not a glitch. a bookmaker makes money off recreational punters who lose over time. someone who actually wins is a cost to them, so they profile you, and the moment your account looks sharp they cut your stakes to pennies. thats "risk management" to them.

the answer winning punters use is the exchange. betfair especially - youre not betting against the house there, youre matched against other punters, and the exchange just takes a commission on your winnings. it genuinely does not care if you win, so it doesnt limit you. same logic is why the sharp money is drifting to prediction markets now too
 
this is exactly why i only touch betfair exchange these days. cleared five figures again last month, no book can factor me down cause im not on a book. you lot arguing about max stakes are playing the wrong game entirely
 
Let me get this straight. You got good at it, so the machine banned you for being good at it. A man in a shop took my cash bet last week and physically could not have "factored me down" if he wanted to - he counted my winnings into my hand and said see you saturday.
You traded that for a website that studies you and locks you out the instant you stop being profitable to it. And this is the upgrade. Astonishing.
 
hang on they can just ban you for WINNING?? whats even the point of the whole thing then lol 😭 i thought the point was to try and win
 
thats the business son. they don't sell you a fair game, they sell you entertainment and they need most people to lose for it to work. someone who wins is a bug in the system to them, so they remove you. the whole thing runs on the mugs, no offence to present company
 
Same story in the US, the books here limit just as fast. But the genuinely huge development is prediction markets. Kalshi and Polymarket. Their combined volume went from under 5 billion a month last autumn to around 24 billion a month by April - thats MORE than the entire legal US sportsbook handle. And because you're trading a contract against other traders, not betting into a house, they don't limit winners.

The catch is the legal situation is complete chaos right now. Worth understanding before anyone piles in thinking its a clean loophole.
 
jackpot_jones said:
just legal everywhere
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No, and this is the mess. Theyre federally regulated by the CFTC as event contracts, so technically legal in all 50 states - but the states are fighting it hard. One federal appeals court (the Third Circuit) sided with Kalshi back in April, another (the Ninth) looked like it was leaning the states way. Arizona has literally filed CRIMINAL charges. The CFTC is now suing Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois to stop them enforcing. Something like thirteen states have active enforcement going.

Most people expect it ends up at the Supreme Court. So "legal" depends on your state and honestly which week it is.
 
polymarkets the answer anyway. onchain, no book, no limits, nobody can factor you down or freeze you cause there's no "you" to freeze, its just a wallet in a market 🚀 the future doesn't have a risk management department
 
cryptowine said:
polymarkets the answer anyway. onchain, no book, no limits, nobody can factor you down or freeze you cause there's no "you" to freeze, its just a wallet in a market 🚀 the future doesn't have a risk management department
Click to expand...
that "no limits" are true and its a real advantage. but people in here are starting to talk about prediction markets like they're a free money printer and thats a different claim entirely. there's still a spread on every contract, which is effectively vig, and the market can be sharp - if the price already reflects the real probability you've got no edge and you'll lose slowly, same as anywhere. "they cant limit you" is not "you cant lose". don't confuse the two
 
for us its all offshore books anyway, and they limit the second you pull real money out too, exactly the same. no easy exchange or kalshi access here either. so what we do is just spread it across a few books and keep every stake small enough that nobody bothers looking at you. flying under the radar is the only "edge" thats survivable long term when you've got no recourse
 
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