Got limited to 12p max stake for winning too. is every book doing this now or is it just me

ok so realistically the move is: betfairexchange for anything where i actually think ive got an edge, and prediction markets IF im somewhere its not currently being sued into the ground, and just write the books off entirely cause they're only interested in people who lose. have i got that right
 
dumdumb. said:
have i got that right
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Essentially yes, with three caveats. The book model is built to profit from recreational losers, so being a consistent winner getting limited is the design working as intended, not a glitch - stop taking it personally. The exchanges and prediction markets don't limit you because you're trading against other people rather than the house.

But: you still need a genuine edge, or you'll just lose on the exchange instead. Exchange liquidity varies a lot by market and by sport. And prediction market legality is a moving target you have to check for your own jurisdiction before you commit money. It's not "the books are stupid", it's "you stopped fitting their customer profile".
 
Or - and I offer this freely - shop. A counter. Cash. A man who takes your bet, pays you when you win, and does not run you through a model to decide you've become too clever to be allowed. We have gone from that to Supreme Court cases about whether a football coupon is a financial derivative. Nobody stop and think this is mad?
 
One more thing for anyone eyeing the prediction markets. Its not just the states twitchy about it - the NFL blocked them from advertising during the Super Bowl. And a heads up for the crowd from the tax thread: Kalshi doesn't issue 1099 forms for these trades and the IRS hasn't actually said how to classify the profits yet. So on top of the legality question there's a whole tax mess coming that nobody has answers to. Go in with your eyes open.
 
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