Polymarket - prediction markets gettn' out of hand?

peter

peter

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been seeing Polymarket mentioned everywhere lately so figured id check it out. its a prediction market where you bet on outcomes of various events. politics, sports, crypto prices, basically anything
the interesting part is its p2p - you're betting aginst other users not against a house. platform just facilitates the market

couple questions for anyone who's used it:
  1. they convert everything to USDC.e on polygon. whats the deal with that? is it safe?
  2. they claim to be decentralized but you cant export your keys. how is that decentralized?
  3. can anyone create markets or do you need permission?
not promoting it just curious how it actually works since everyone talks about it but nobody explains the technical side
 
Used it during the US election, worked fine. USDC.e is just bridged USDC on polygon. Should be safe as it's backed 1:1 by real USDC locked on ethereum.
Regarding decentralization - it's not really decentralized despite marketing. You get an address generated for you which they control. Classic web3 buzzword usage.

Markets are created by Polymarket team, not open to everyone. So definitely centralized in that sense.
 
the "decentralized" claim is pure marketing. they use smart contracts for settlement but platform itself is centralized. they decide which markets to list, they control resolution, they can ban users
basically a normal betting platform that uses blockchain for payments. nothing wrong with that but dont call it decentralized
 
Biggest issue is insider trading imo saw someone bet huge amount on trump winning PA like week before election. odds were bad but they knew something
with geopolitical events its even worse. people with inside info can make millions
 
HaasS. said:
Biggest issue is insider trading imo saw someone bet huge amount on trump winning PA like week before election. odds were bad but they knew something
with geopolitical events its even worse. people with inside info can make millions
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yeah the geopolitical betting markets are sketchy af something like betting on whether missiles will hit israel? who tf thinks that''s appropriate
 
I used it few times for fun, small amounts. UI is actually pretty good compared to traditional betting sites. easy to understand the odds and place bets. my issue is you never know if you're betting against someone with actual knowledge vs just guessing like you.
in sports betting everyone has same info. in politics/news events some people definitely have insider edge
 
thet's not true tho, injury info and lineup changes leak to certain people early all the time. insider info exists in all betting not just polymarket
 
The difference is scale. Sports insider info might give you edge on single game. Political/military insider info can give you edge on markets worth millions with very clear binary outcomes. Someone betting $14 million that Iran wont strike Israel by certain date... that person either has inside knowledge or is insane. No in between lol
 
speaking of iran/israel did anyone see the story about the journalist getting death threats? apparently someone bet huge amount that no iranian missile would hit israel. when journalist reported that missile DID hit, bettor threatened to hire hitmen unless article was deleted
fucking crazy!!
 
Ricardo_Martinez said:
speaking of iran/israel did anyone see the story about the journalist getting death threats? apparently someone bet huge amount that no iranian missile would hit israel. when journalist reported that missile DID hit, bettor threatened to hire hitmen unless article was deleted
fucking crazy!!
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wait what? is this confirmed or just rumor

if that's real then polymarket has serious problems. you cant have bet resolution depend on media reports if people can threaten journalists
 
peter said:
wait what? is this confirmed or just rumor

if that's real then polymarket has serious problems. you cant have bet resolution depend on media reports if people can threaten journalists
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its real, multiple news outlets reported it and the whole situation shows why betting on war/conflict is fucked. when $14 million depends on whether news says missile hit or not, journalists become targets
polymarket should never have allowed that market in first place
 
This is what happens when you let resolution criteria depend on subjective media reports. "Did missile hit Israel?" should be verifiable fact, not dependent on which journalist reported what.
But how do you verify it objectively when information in war zones is always disputed? Whole thing is mess
 
so who decides if the bet wins or loses? polymarket admins? damn that seems super centralized for a "decentralized" platform
 
Tracy said:
so who decides if the bet wins or loses? polymarket admins? damn that seems super centralized for a "decentralized" platform
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mate they use UMA oracle system for resolution so basically token holders vote on outcomes. supposed to prevent manipulation but in practice polymarket team has heavy influence. not as centralized as one person deciding but definitely not trustless either
 
bitvadol said:
tried usin polymarket few weeks ago, deposit went fine but when i tried to withdraw they asked for KYC. honestly i thought the whole point was no KYC? or is that only for small amounts
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yea they require KYC for withdrawals over certain amount, i think its like $2k or something. so below that you're fine without kyc. above that they need verification. same shit ecerywhere now
 
polymarket is technically banned in indonesia but everyone uses it anyway here just with VPN

never had issues with deposits or withdrawals. won about $800 on bitcoin price predictions last month, got paid out in 10 minutes
 
the variety of markets is wild tho. you can bet on literaly anything. will elon tweet today? will specific company get acquired? will某person get indicted? feels like everything is gamified now.not sure if thats good thing
 
this is my main consern with it!
betting on sports = fine, its entertainment
betting on elections = bit weird but okay
betting on whether people will die in war = fucked up!

polymarket doesn't seem to have any ethical boundaries on what markets they allow
 
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