Polymarket - prediction markets gettn' out of hand?

Nekko said:
and that person could manipulate the outcome by just tweeting more or less. seems like obvious conflict of interest. what if elon has friends betting on his tweet count huh?
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lmao you think elon gives a shit about his friends making money on polymarket?
the amounts are tiny compared to his net worth. he's not manipulating his behavior for that
 
john said:
lmao you think elon gives a shit about his friends making money on polymarket?
the amounts are tiny compared to his net worth. he's not manipulating his behavior for that
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lol but anyway you missed whole point bro
 
honestly the more i learn about polymarket the less i trust it! insider trading, death threats, vague resolution criteria, centralized control despite claiming decentralization
only reason people use it is because there's no better alternative. if someone made truly decentralized prediction market they'd dominate for sure
 
Ricardo_Martinez said:
honestly the more i learn about polymarket the less i trust it! insider trading, death threats, vague resolution criteria, centralized control despite claiming decentralization
only reason people use it is because there's no better alternative. if someone made truly decentralized prediction market they'd dominate for sure
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Problem is true decentralization makes resolution impossible. Who decides outcome if theres no central authority? cant rely on oracles because oracle providers are centralized. This is fundamental tradeoff decentralization vs usability
 
Augur tried to be fully decentralized prediction market years ago and wha?? It failed because resolution was too slow and dispute resolution was nightmare. also barely any liquidity
Polymarket works because its centralized enough to actually function. sometimes decentralization isnt the answer
 
read the journalist death threat story in detail the bettor literally said "delete your article in 86 minutes or ill hire hitmen"
journalist didn't delete it. bettor lost $14 million this is insane and polymarket should face legal consequences for creating that situation
 
dont be ridiculous man! nuts ppl are everywhere just cuz some idiot did what idiots do u cant balme pm
jeez
 
except polymarket created financial incentive for the threat as if there wasn't $14M bet on outcome, there wouldn't be death thraet. platform enabled it
 
I guess both sides have point and yes, platform created conditions for threat to occur. But individual bettor is responsible for their own actions.
Solution is probably better market design - don't allow resolution based on single news source, require multiple confirmations, use more objective criteria
 
at the end of the day polymarket is what it is - unregulated gambling platform with prediction markets. if you use it understand the risks: insider trading, manipulation, resolution disputes, potential scams
personally i still use it for small amounts on clear-cut markets. wouldn't bet serious money on anything subjective tho
 
has anyone actually had polymarket refuse to pay out winnings? seen lots of theoretical concerns but curious if anyone has actual bad experience with them
 
not personally but i've seen disputes over market resolution where people claim they should have won but Polymarket ruled against them
whether thet's "refusing to pay" or "correctly applying resolution criteria" depends on your perspective
 
i think polymarket is fine for entertainment betting on clear outcomes - politics, sports, simple yes/no questions with obvious resolution
but betting on war, death, tragedy, complex geopolitical events... that's where it crosses line into unethical territory
unfortunately platform seems to prioritize volume over ethics
 
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