Prediction markets (Kalshi/Polymarket) - is it gambling or trading and is ths where the sharp money actually went?

RedSeven said:
someone's on the other side of every trade and sometimes its someone smarter than me
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and ther'es the tell, right there. "the good traders take your money." its a zero sum bet against other people, minus a fee that the platform rakes off the top. for you to win, someone has to lose. thats not investing, thats a card table with a nicer login page. call it trading if it helps you sleep
 
and yet, once again, here. posting. on the forum. for free. your yacht wifi must be incredible
 
yes this is the new thing now because the people they get limited on the normal bookie so they go to this prediction market that say is not the gambling is the trading but really is the same you put the money you win or you lose the only difference is the regulation is the federal one not the state so the state they are very angry and they go to the court but the company they say no is a swap like the finance product and the court they cannot agree so is confuse for everybody and in the meantime the volume is going up and up and up because everybody they want the one place that the bookie cannot stop and cannot limit so really the appeal is not the trading is just that nobody can tell you no
 
genesis just compressed a 40-page law firm memo into one breath and "nobody can tell you no" is genuinely the whole appeal in four words. give the man a column
 
honestly i don't get why there fighting it so hard, its basically the same as betting just with different rules innit, if people wanna put there money on kalshi instead of a bookies whats the actual difference to the goverment, let people do what they want with there own cash
 
Tax and control, @Avalon1. A state-licensed sportsbook pays state tax and follows state rules on limits, advertising and self-exclusion. A federally regulated contract does none of that - the state gets no revenue and no control. That is the real fight, not morality and not protecting you. When a government suddenly cares deeply about a form of gambling, follow the money, it is almost always the tax base.
 
Think I've landed somewhere after all this. its a market AND its gambling, and which word applies depends mostly on which court ruled that week. Im going to keep using it,cause the big markets have real liquidity and nothing can limit me, which was the whole reason I left the sports-books. Im not going to pretend to myself that the tax situation and the legality aren't basically a coin flip right now.
Fairer fight, same fundamental thing. anyway cheers for the answers lads
 
polymarket onchain is the actual endgame bro. one global liquid market for reality itself, no bookies, no borders, no state lines. betting on truth 🕵️‍♂️
 
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